The Rôle of Experiment and Generalization.—Experiment
is the sole source of truth. It alone can teach us anything new;
it alone can give us certainty. These are two points that can not
be questioned.
But then, if experiment is everything, what place will remain
for mathematical physics? What has experimental physics to do
with such an aid, one which seems useless and perhaps even
dangerous?
And yet mathematical physics exists, and has done unquestionable
service. We have here a fact that must be explained.
The explanation is that merely to observe is not enough. We
must use our observations, and to do that we must generalize.
This is what men always have done; only as the memory of past
errors has made them more and more careful, they have observed
more and more, and generalized less and less.
Every age has ridiculed the one before it, and accused it of
having generalized too quickly and too naïvely. Descartes pitied
the Ionians; Descartes, in his turn, makes us smile. No doubt
our children will some day laugh at us.
But can we not then pass over immediately to the goal? Is not
this the means of escaping the ridicule that we foresee? Can
we not be content with just the bare experiment?
No, that is impossible; it would be to mistake utterly the
true nature of science. The scientist must set in order. Science
is built up with facts, as a house is with stones. But a collection
of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house.
And above all the scientist must foresee. Carlyle has somewhere
said something like this: "Nothing but facts are of importance.
John Lackland passed by here. Here is something
that is admirable. Here is a reality for which I would give all
the theories in the world." Carlyle was a fellow countryman of
Bacon; but Bacon would not have said that. That is the language
of the historian. The physicist would say rather: "John Lackland
passed by here; that makes no difference to me, for he
never will pass this way again."
We all know that there are good experiments and poor ones.
The latter will accumulate in vain; though one may have made a
hundred or a thousand, a single piece of work by a true master,
by a Pasteur, for example, will suffice to tumble them into oblivion.
Bacon would have well understood this; it is he who invented the
phrase Experimentum crucis. But Carlyle would not have understood
it. A fact is a fact. A pupil has read a certain number on
his thermometer; he has taken no precaution; no matter, he has
read it, and if it is only the fact that counts, here is a reality of
the same rank as the peregrinations of King John Lackland. Why
is the fact that this pupil has made this reading of no interest,
while the fact that a skilled physicist had made another reading
might be on the contrary very important? It is because from the
first reading we could not infer anything. What then is a good
experiment? It is that which informs us of something besides
an isolated fact; it is that which enables us to foresee, that is, that
which enables us to generalize.
For without generalization foreknowledge is impossible. The
circumstances under which one has worked will never reproduce
themselves all at once. The observed action then will never recur;
the only thing that can be affirmed is that under analogous circumstances
an analogous action will be produced. In order to
foresee, then, it is necessary to invoke at least analogy, that is to
say, already then to generalize.
No matter how timid one may be, still it is necessary to interpolate.
Experiment gives us only a certain number of isolated
points. We must unite these by a continuous line. This is a
veritable generalization. But we do more; the curve that we shall
trace will pass between the observed points and near these points;
it will not pass through these points themselves. Thus one does
not restrict himself to generalizing the experiments, but corrects
them; and the physicist who should try to abstain from these corrections
and really be content with the bare experiment, would be
forced to enunciate some very strange laws.
The bare facts, then, would not be enough for us; and that is
why we must have science ordered, or rather organized.
It is often said experiments must be made without a preconceived
idea. That is impossible. Not only would it make
all experiment barren, but that would be attempted which could
not be done. Every one carries in his mind his own conception
of the world, of which he can not so easily rid himself. We must,
for instance, use language; and our language is made up only of
preconceived ideas and can not be otherwise. Only these are
unconscious preconceived ideas, a thousand times more dangerous
than the others.
Shall we say that if we introduce others, of which we are
fully conscious, we shall only aggravate the evil? I think not.
I believe rather that they will serve as counterbalances to each
other—I was going to say as antidotes; they will in general accord
ill with one another—they will come into conflict with one another,
and thereby force us to regard things under different
aspects. This is enough to emancipate us. He is no longer a
slave who can choose his master.
Thus, thanks to generalization, each fact observed enables us
to foresee a great many others; only we must not forget that the
first alone is certain, that all others are merely probable. No
matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us, we are
never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it, if
we undertake to verify it. The probability, however, is often so
great that practically we may be content with it. It is far better
to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.
One must, then, never disdain to make a verification when
opportunity offers. But all experiment is long and difficult; the
workers are few; and the number of facts that we need to foresee
is immense. Compared with this mass the number of direct verifications
that we can make will never be anything but a negligible
quantity.
Of this few that we can directly attain, we must make the best
use; it is very necessary to get from every experiment the greatest
possible number of predictions, and with the highest possible
degree of probability. The problem is, so to speak, to increase
the yield of the scientific machine.
Let us compare science to a library that ought to grow continually.
The librarian has at his disposal for his purchases only
insufficient funds. He ought to make an effort not to waste them.
It is experimental physics that is entrusted with the purchases.
It alone, then, can enrich the library.
As for mathematical physics, its task will be to make out the
catalogue. If the catalogue is well made, the library will not be
any richer, but the reader will be helped to use its riches.
And even by showing the librarian the gaps in his collections,
it will enable him to make a judicious use of his funds; which is all
the more important because these funds are entirely inadequate.
Such, then, is the rôle of mathematical physics. It must direct
generalization in such a manner as to increase what I just now
called the yield of science. By what means it can arrive at this,
and how it can do it without danger, is what remains for us to
investigate.
The Unity of Nature.—Let us notice, first of all, that every
generalization implies in some measure the belief in the unity
and simplicity of nature. As to the unity there can be no difficulty.
If the different parts of the universe were not like the
members of one body, they would not act on one another, they
would know nothing of one another; and we in particular would
know only one of these parts. We do not ask, then, if nature is
one, but how it is one.
As for the second point, that is not such an easy matter. It is
not certain that nature is simple. Can we without danger act
as if it were?
There was a time when the simplicity of Mariotte's law was
an argument invoked in favor of its accuracy; when Fresnel himself,
after having said in a conversation with Laplace that nature
was not concerned about analytical difficulties, felt himself
obliged to make explanations, in order not to strike too hard
at prevailing opinion.
To-day ideas have greatly changed; and yet, those who do not
believe that natural laws have to be simple, are still often obliged
to act as if they did. They could not entirely avoid this necessity
without making impossible all generalization, and consequently
all science.
It is clear that any fact can be generalized in an infinity of
ways, and it is a question of choice. The choice can be guided
only by considerations of simplicity. Let us take the most commonplace
case, that of interpolation. We pass a continuous line,
as regular as possible, between the points given by observation.
Why do we avoid points making angles and too abrupt turns?
Why do we not make our curve describe the most capricious zig-zags?
It is because we know beforehand, or believe we know, that
the law to be expressed can not be so complicated as all that.
We may calculate the mass of Jupiter from either the movements
of its satellites, or the perturbations of the major planets,
or those of the minor planets. If we take the averages of the
determinations obtained by these three methods, we find three
numbers very close together, but different. We might interpret
this result by supposing that the coefficient of gravitation is not
the same in the three cases. The observations would certainly be
much better represented. Why do we reject this interpretation?
Not because it is absurd, but because it is needlessly complicated.
We shall only accept it when we are forced to, and that is not yet.
To sum up, ordinarily every law is held to be simple till the
contrary is proved.
This custom is imposed upon physicists by the causes that I
have just explained. But how shall we justify it in the presence
of discoveries that show us every day new details that are richer
and more complex? How shall we even reconcile it with the
belief in the unity of nature? For if everything depends on
everything, relationships where so many diverse factors enter can
no longer be simple.
If we study the history of science, we see happen two inverse
phenomena, so to speak. Sometimes simplicity hides under complex
appearances; sometimes it is the simplicity which is apparent,
and which disguises extremely complicated realities.
What is more complicated than the confused movements of
the planets? What simpler than Newton's law? Here nature,
making sport, as Fresnel said, of analytical difficulties, employs
only simple means, and by combining them produces I know not
what inextricable tangle. Here it is the hidden simplicity which
must be discovered.
Examples of the opposite abound. In the kinetic theory of
gases, one deals with molecules moving with great velocities,
whose paths, altered by incessant collisions, have the most capricious
forms and traverse space in every direction. The observable
result is Mariotte's simple law. Every individual fact was complicated.
The law of great numbers has reestablished simplicity
in the average. Here the simplicity is merely apparent, and only
the coarseness of our senses prevents our perceiving the complexity.
Many phenomena obey a law of proportionality. But why?
Because in these phenomena there is something very small. The
simple law observed, then, is only a result of the general analytical
rule that the infinitely small increment of a function is
proportional to the increment of the variable. As in reality our
increments are not infinitely small, but very small, the law of
proportionality is only approximate, and the simplicity is only
apparent. What I have just said applies to the rule of the superposition
of small motions, the use of which is so fruitful, and
which is the basis of optics.
And Newton's law itself? Its simplicity, so long undetected,
is perhaps only apparent. Who knows whether it is not due to
some complicated mechanism, to the impact of some subtile matter
animated by irregular movements, and whether it has not become
simple only through the action of averages and of great numbers?
In any case, it is difficult not to suppose that the true law
contains complementary terms, which would become sensible at
small distances. If in astronomy they are negligible as modifying
Newton's law, and if the law thus regains its simplicity, it
would be only because of the immensity of celestial distances.
No doubt, if our means of investigation should become more
and more penetrating, we should discover the simple under the
complex, then the complex under the simple, then again the simple
under the complex, and so on, without our being able to
foresee what will be the last term.
We must stop somewhere, and that science may be possible we
must stop when we have found simplicity. This is the only
ground on which we can rear the edifice of our generalizations.
But this simplicity being only apparent, will the ground be firm
enough? This is what must be investigated.
For that purpose, let us see what part is played in our generalizations
by the belief in simplicity. We have verified a simple
law in a good many particular cases; we refuse to admit that this
agreement, so often repeated, is simply the result of chance, and
conclude that the law must be true in the general case.
Kepler notices that a planet's positions, as observed by Tycho,
are all on one ellipse. Never for a moment does he have the
thought that by a strange play of chance Tycho never observed
the heavens except at a moment when the real orbit of the planet
happened to cut this ellipse.
What does it matter then whether the simplicity be real, or
whether it covers a complex reality? Whether it is due to the
influence of great numbers, which levels down individual differences,
or to the greatness or smallness of certain quantities, which
allows us to neglect certain terms, in no case is it due to chance.
This simplicity, real or apparent, always has a cause. We can
always follow, then, the same course of reasoning, and if a simple
law has been observed in several particular cases, we can legitimately
suppose that it will still be true in analogous cases. To
refuse to do this would be to attribute to chance an inadmissible
rôle.
There is, however, a difference. If the simplicity were real
and essential, it would resist the increasing precision of our means
of measure. If then we believe nature to be essentially simple,
we must, from a simplicity that is approximate, infer a simplicity
that is rigorous. This is what was done formerly; and this is
what we no longer have a right to do.
The simplicity of Kepler's laws, for example, is only apparent.
That does not prevent their being applicable, very nearly, to all
systems analogous to the solar system; but it does prevent their
being rigorously exact.
The Rôle of Hypothesis.—All generalization is a hypothesis.
Hypothesis, then, has a necessary rôle that no one has ever
contested. Only, it ought always, as soon as possible and as often
as possible, to be subjected to verification. And, of course, if it
does not stand this test, it ought to be abandoned without reserve.
This is what we generally do, but sometimes with rather an ill
humor.
Well, even this ill humor is not justified. The physicist who
has just renounced one of his hypotheses ought, on the contrary,
to be full of joy; for he has found an unexpected opportunity
for discovery. His hypothesis, I imagine, had not been adopted
without consideration; it took account of all the known factors
that it seemed could enter into the phenomenon. If the test does
not support it, it is because there is something unexpected and
extraordinary; and because there is going to be something found
that is unknown and new.
Has the discarded hypothesis, then, been barren? Far from
that, it may be said it has rendered more service than a true
hypothesis. Not only has it been the occasion of the decisive
experiment, but, without having made the hypothesis, the experiment
would have been made by chance, so that nothing would
have been derived from it. One would have seen nothing extraordinary;
only one fact the more would have been catalogued
without deducing from it the least consequence.
Now on what condition is the use of hypothesis without danger?
The firm determination to submit to experiment is not enough;
there are still dangerous hypotheses; first, and above all, those
which are tacit and unconscious. Since we make them without
knowing it, we are powerless to abandon them. Here again, then,
is a service that mathematical physics can render us. By the
precision that is characteristic of it, it compels us to formulate
all the hypotheses that we should make without it, but unconsciously.
Let us notice besides that it is important not to multiply
hypotheses beyond measure, and to make them only one after the
other. If we construct a theory based on a number of hypotheses,
and if experiment condemns it, which of our premises is it necessary
to change? It will be impossible to know. And inversely,
if the experiment succeeds, shall we believe that we have
demonstrated all the hypotheses at once? Shall we believe that with
one single equation we have determined several unknowns?
We must equally take care to distinguish between the different
kinds of hypotheses. There are first those which are perfectly
natural and from which one can scarcely escape. It is difficult
not to suppose that the influence of bodies very remote is quite
negligible, that small movements follow a linear law, that the
effect is a continuous function of its cause. I will say as much
of the conditions imposed by symmetry. All these hypotheses
form, as it were, the common basis of all the theories of mathematical
physics. They are the last that ought to be abandoned.
There is a second class of hypotheses, that I shall term neutral.
In most questions the analyst assumes at the beginning of his
calculations either that matter is continuous or, on the contrary,
that it is formed of atoms. He might have made the opposite
assumption without changing his results. He would only have
had more trouble to obtain them; that is all. If, then, experiment
confirms his conclusions, will he think that he has demonstrated,
for instance, the real existence of atoms?
In optical theories two vectors are introduced, of which one
is regarded as a velocity, the other as a vortex. Here again is
a neutral hypothesis, since the same conclusions would have been
reached by taking precisely the opposite. The success of the
experiment, then, can not prove that the first vector is indeed a
velocity; it can only prove one thing, that it is a vector. This
is the only hypothesis that has really been introduced in the
premises. In order to give it that concrete appearance which the
weakness of our minds requires, it has been necessary to consider
it either as a velocity or as a vortex, in the same way that it has
been necessary to represent it by a letter, either x or y. The
result, however, whatever it may be, will not prove that it was
right or wrong to regard it as a velocity any more than it will
prove that it was right or wrong to call it x and not y.
These neutral hypotheses are never dangerous, if only their
character is not misunderstood. They may be useful, either as
devices for computation, or to aid our understanding by concrete
images, to fix our ideas as the saying is. There is, then, no occasion
to exclude them.
The hypotheses of the third class are the real generalizations.
They are the ones that experiment must confirm or invalidate.
Whether verified or condemned, they will always be fruitful.
But for the reasons that I have set forth, they will only be fruitful
if they are not too numerous.
Origin of Mathematical Physics.—Let us penetrate further,
and study more closely the conditions that have permitted the
development of mathematical physics. We observe at once that
the efforts of scientists have always aimed to resolve the complex
phenomenon directly given by experiment into a very large number
of elementary phenomena.
This is done in three different ways: first, in time. Instead of
embracing in its entirety the progressive development of a
phenomenon, the aim is simply to connect each instant with the
instant immediately preceding it. It is admitted that the actual
state of the world depends only on the immediate past, without
being directly influenced, so to speak, by the memory of a distant
past. Thanks to this postulate, instead of studying directly the
whole succession of phenomena, it is possible to confine ourselves
to writing its 'differential equation.' For Kepler's laws we substitute
Newton's law.
Next we try to analyze the phenomenon in space. What experiment
gives us is a confused mass of facts presented on a
stage of considerable extent. We must try to discover the elementary
phenomenon, which will be, on the contrary, localized in
a very small region of space.
Some examples will perhaps make my thought better understood.
If we wished to study in all its complexity the distribution
of temperature in a cooling solid, we should never succeed.
Everything becomes simple if we reflect that one point of the
solid can not give up its heat directly to a distant point; it will
give up its heat only to the points in the immediate neighborhood,
and it is by degrees that the flow of heat can reach other
parts of the solid. The elementary phenomenon is the exchange
of heat between two contiguous points. It is strictly localized,
and is relatively simple, if we admit, as is natural, that it is not
influenced by the temperature of molecules whose distance is
sensible.
I bend a rod. It is going to take a very complicated form,
the direct study of which would be impossible. But I shall be
able, however, to attack it, if I observe that its flexure is a result
only of the deformation of the very small elements of the rod, and
that the deformation of each of these elements depends only on
the forces that are directly applied to it, and not at all on those
which may act on the other elements.
In all these examples, which I might easily multiply, we
admit that there is no action at a distance, or at least at a great
distance. This is a hypothesis. It is not always true, as the
law of gravitation shows us. It must, then, be submitted to verification.
If it is confirmed, even approximately, it is precious,
for it will enable us to make mathematical physics, at least by
successive approximations.
If it does not stand the test, we must look for something else
analogous; for there are still other means of arriving at the
elementary phenomenon. If several bodies act simultaneously,
it may happen that their actions are independent and are simply
added to one another, either as vectors or as scalars. The elementary
phenomenon is then the action of an isolated body. Or
again, we have to deal with small movements, or more generally
with small variations, which obey the well-known law of superposition.
The observed movement will then be decomposed into
simple movements, for example, sound into its harmonics, white
light into its monochromatic components.
When we have discovered in what direction it is advisable to
look for the elementary phenomenon, by what means can we
reach it?
First of all, it will often happen that in order to detect it,
or rather to detect the part of it useful to us, it will not be necessary
to penetrate the mechanism; the law of great numbers will
suffice.
Let us take again the instance of the propagation of heat.
Every molecule emits rays toward every neighboring molecule.
According to what law, we do not need to know. If we should
make any supposition in regard to this, it would be a neutral
hypothesis and consequently useless and incapable of verification.
And, in fact, by the action of averages and thanks to the
symmetry of the medium, all the differences are leveled down, and
whatever hypothesis may be made, the result is always the same.
The same circumstance is presented in the theory of electricity
and in that of capillarity. The neighboring molecules attract
and repel one another. We do not need to know according to
what law; it is enough for us that this attraction is sensible only
at small distances, and that the molecules are very numerous, that
the medium is symmetrical, and we shall only have to let the law
of great numbers act.
Here again the simplicity of the elementary phenomenon
was hidden under the complexity of the resultant observable phenomenon;
but, in its turn, this simplicity was only apparent, and
concealed a very complex mechanism.
The best means of arriving at the elementary phenomenon
would evidently be experiment. We ought by experimental contrivance
to dissociate the complex sheaf that nature offers to our
researches, and to study with care the elements as much isolated
as possible. For example, natural white light would be decomposed
into monochromatic lights by the aid of the prism, and
into polarized light by the aid of the polarizer.
Unfortunately that is neither always possible nor always sufficient,
and sometimes the mind must outstrip experiment. I shall
cite only one example, which has always struck me forcibly.
If I decompose white light, I shall be able to isolate a small part
of the spectrum, but however small it may be, it will retain a
certain breadth. Likewise the natural lights, called monochromatic,
give us a very narrow line, but not, however, infinitely
narrow. It might be supposed that by studying experimentally
the properties of these natural lights, by working with finer and
finer lines of the spectrum, and by passing at last to the limit, so
to speak, we should succeed in learning the properties of a light
strictly monochromatic.
That would not be accurate. Suppose that two rays emanate
from the same source, that we polarize them first in two perpendicular
planes, then bring them back to the same plane of polarization,
and try to make them interfere. If the light were strictly
monochromatic, they would interfere. With our lights, which
are nearly monochromatic, there will be no interference, and
that no matter how narrow the line. In order to be otherwise
it would have to be several million times as narrow as the finest
known lines.
Here, then, the passage to the limit would have deceived us.
The mind must outstrip the experiment, and if it has done so
with success, it is because it has allowed itself to be guided by the
instinct of simplicity.
The knowledge of the elementary fact enables us to put the
problem in an equation. Nothing remains but to deduce from
this by combination the complex fact that can be observed and
verified. This is what is called integration, and is the business
of the mathematician.
It may be asked why, in physical sciences, generalization so
readily takes the mathematical form. The reason is now easy to
see. It is not only because we have numerical laws to express; it
is because the observable phenomenon is due to the superposition
of a great number of elementary phenomena all alike. Thus
quite naturally are introduced differential equations.
It is not enough that each elementary phenomenon obeys simple
laws; all those to be combined must obey the same law. Then
only can the intervention of mathematics be of use; mathematics
teaches us in fact to combine like with like. Its aim is to learn
the result of a combination without needing to go over the combination
piece by piece. If we have to repeat several times the
same operation, it enables us to avoid this repetition by telling us
in advance the result of it by a sort of induction. I have explained
this above, in the chapter on mathematical reasoning.
But for this, all the operations must be alike. In the opposite
case, it would evidently be necessary to resign ourselves to doing
them in reality one after another, and mathematics would become
useless.
It is then thanks to the approximate homogeneity of the
matter studied by physicists that mathematical physics could be
born.
In the natural sciences, we no longer find these conditions:
homogeneity, relative independence of remote parts, simplicity
of the elementary fact; and this is why naturalists are obliged
to resort to other methods of generalization.
Meaning of Physical Theories.—The laity are struck to
see how ephemeral scientific theories are. After some years of
prosperity, they see them successively abandoned; they see ruins
accumulate upon ruins; they foresee that the theories fashionable
to-day will shortly succumb in their turn and hence they conclude
that these are absolutely idle. This is what they call the
bankruptcy of science.
Their skepticism is superficial; they give no account to themselves
of the aim and the rôle of scientific theories; otherwise
they would comprehend that the ruins may still be good for
something.
No theory seemed more solid than that of Fresnel which
attributed light to motions of the ether. Yet now Maxwell's
is preferred. Does this mean the work of Fresnel was in vain?
No, because the aim of Fresnel was not to find out whether
there is really an ether, whether it is or is not formed of atoms,
whether these atoms really move in this or that sense; his object
was to foresee optical phenomena.
Now, Fresnel's theory always permits of this, to-day as well
as before Maxwell. The differential equations are always true;
they can always be integrated by the same procedures and the
results of this integration always retain their value.
And let no one say that thus we reduce physical theories to
the rôle of mere practical recipes; these equations express relations,
and if the equations remain true it is because these relations
preserve their reality. They teach us, now as then, that
there is such and such a relation between some thing and some
other thing; only this something formerly we called motion; we
now call it electric current. But these appellations were only
images substituted for the real objects which nature will eternally
hide from us. The true relations between these real objects are
the only reality we can attain to, and the only condition is that
the same relations exist between these objects as between the
images by which we are forced to replace them. If these relations
are known to us, what matter if we deem it convenient
to replace one image by another.
That some periodic phenomenon (an electric oscillation, for
instance) is really due to the vibration of some atom which, acting
like a pendulum, really moves in this or that sense, is neither
certain nor interesting. But that between electric oscillation,
the motion of the pendulum and all periodic phenomena there
exists a close relationship which corresponds to a profound reality;
that this relationship, this similitude, or rather this parallelism
extends into details; that it is a consequence of more general
principles, that of energy and that of least action; this is what
we can affirm; this is the truth which will always remain the
same under all the costumes in which we may deem it useful to
deck it out.
Numerous theories of dispersion have been proposed; the
first was imperfect and contained only a small part of truth.
Afterwards came that of Helmholtz; then it was modified in various
ways, and its author himself imagined another founded on
the principles of Maxwell. But, what is remarkable, all the scientists
who came after Helmholtz reached the same equations,
starting from points of departure in appearance very widely
separated. I will venture to say these theories are all true at
the same time, not only because they make us foresee the same
phenomena, but because they put in evidence a true relation, that
of absorption and anomalous dispersion. What is true in the
premises of these theories is what is common to all the authors;
this is the affirmation of this or that relation between certain
things which some call by one name, others by another.
The kinetic theory of gases has given rise to many objections,
which we could hardly answer if we pretended to see in it the
absolute truth. But all these objections will not preclude its
having been useful, and particularly so in revealing to us a
relation true and but for it profoundly hidden, that of the
gaseous pressure and the osmotic pressure. In this sense, then,
it may be said to be true.
When a physicist finds a contradiction between two theories
equally dear to him, he sometimes says: "We will not bother
about that, but hold firmly the two ends of the chain, though the
intermediate links are hidden from us." This argument of an
embarrassed theologian would be ridiculous if it were necessary
to attribute to physical theories the sense the laity give them.
In case of contradiction, one of them at least must then be regarded
as false. It is no longer the same if in them be sought
only what should be sought. May be they both express true
relations and the contradiction is only in the images wherewith
we have clothed the reality.
To those who find we restrict too much the domain accessible
to the scientist, I answer: These questions which we interdict
to you and which you regret, are not only insoluble, they are
illusory and devoid of meaning.
Some philosopher pretends that all physics may be explained
by the mutual impacts of atoms. If he merely means there are
between physical phenomena the same relations as between the
mutual impacts of a great number of balls, well and good, that
is verifiable, that is perhaps true. But he means something
more; and we think we understand it because we think we know
what impact is in itself; why? Simply because we have often
seen games of billiards. Shall we think God, contemplating his
work, feels the same sensations as we in watching a billiard
match? If we do not wish to give this bizarre sense to his assertion,
if neither do we wish the restricted sense I have just explained,
which is good sense, then it has none.
Hypotheses of this sort have therefore only a metaphorical
sense. The scientist should no more interdict them than the poet
does metaphors; but he ought to know what they are worth.
They may be useful to give a certain satisfaction to the mind,
and they will not be injurious provided they are only indifferent
hypotheses.
These considerations explain to us why certain theories, supposed
to be abandoned and finally condemned by experiment,
suddenly arise from their ashes and recommence a new life.
It is because they expressed true relations; and because they
had not ceased to do so when, for one reason or another, we
felt it necessary to enunciate the same relations in another
language. So they retained a sort of latent life.
Scarcely fifteen years ago was there anything more ridiculous,
more naïvely antiquated, than Coulomb's fluids? And yet here
they are reappearing under the name of electrons. Wherein do
these permanently electrified molecules differ from Coulomb's
electric molecules? It is true that in the electrons the electricity
is supported by a little, a very little matter; in other words, they
have a mass (and yet this is now contested); but Coulomb did
not deny mass to his fluids, or, if he did, it was only with reluctance.
It would be rash to affirm that the belief in electrons
will not again suffer eclipse; it was none the less curious to note
this unexpected resurrection.
But the most striking example is Carnot's principle. Carnot
set it up starting from false hypotheses; when it was seen that
heat is not indestructible, but may be transformed into work, his
ideas were completely abandoned; afterwards Clausius returned
to them and made them finally triumph. Carnot's theory, under
its primitive form, expressed, aside from true relations, other
inexact relations, débris of antiquated ideas; but the presence of
these latter did not change the reality of the others. Clausius
had only to discard them as one lops off dead branches.
The result was the second fundamental law of thermodynamics.
There were always the same relations; though these relations no
longer subsisted, at least in appearance, between the same objects.
This was enough for the principle to retain its value.
And even the reasonings of Carnot have not perished because
of that; they were applied to a material tainted with error; but
their form (that is to say, the essential) remained correct.
What I have just said illuminates at the same time the rôle
of general principles such as the principle of least action, or that
of the conservation of energy.
These principles have a very high value; they were obtained
in seeking what there was in common in the enunciation of numerous
physical laws; they represent therefore, as it were, the
quintessence of innumerable observations.
However, from their very generality a consequence results to
which I have called attention in Chapter VIII, namely, that
they can no longer be verified. As we can not give a general
definition of energy, the principle of the conservation of energy
signifies simply that there is something which remains constant.
Well, whatever be the new notions that future experiments shall
give us about the world, we are sure in advance that there will
be something there which will remain constant and which may
be called energy.
Is this to say that the principle has no meaning and vanishes
in a tautology? Not at all; it signifies that the different things
to which we give the name of energy are connected by a true kinship;
it affirms a real relation between them. But then if this
principle has a meaning, it may be false; it may be that we have
not the right to extend indefinitely its applications, and yet it is
certain beforehand to be verified in the strict acceptation of the
term; how then shall we know when it shall have attained all the
extension which can legitimately be given it? Just simply when
it shall cease to be useful to us, that is, to make us correctly foresee
new phenomena. We shall be sure in such a case that the
relation affirmed is no longer real; for otherwise it would be
fruitful; experiment, without directly contradicting a new extension
of the principle, will yet have condemned it.
Physics and Mechanism.—Most theorists have a constant
predilection for explanations borrowed from mechanics or dynamics.
Some would be satisfied if they could explain all phenomena
by motions of molecules attracting each other according
to certain laws. Others are more exacting; they would suppress
attractions at a distance; their molecules should follow rectilinear
paths from which they could be made to deviate only by impacts.
Others again, like Hertz, suppress forces also, but suppose their
molecules subjected to geometric attachments analogous, for instance,
to those of our linkages; they try thus to reduce dynamics
to a sort of kinematics.
In a word, all would bend nature into a certain form outside
of which their mind could not feel satisfied. Will nature be
sufficiently flexible for that?
We shall examine this question in Chapter XII, à propos of
Maxwell's theory. Whenever the principles of energy and of
least action are satisfied, we shall see not only that there is always
one possible mechanical explanation, but that there is always an
infinity of them. Thanks to a well-known theorem of König's on
linkages, it could be shown that we can, in an infinity of ways,
explain everything by attachments after the manner of Hertz, or
also by central forces. Without doubt it could be demonstrated
just as easily that everything can always be explained by simple
impacts.
For that, of course, we need not be content with ordinary
matter, with that which falls under our senses and whose motions
we observe directly. Either we shall suppose that this common
matter is formed of atoms whose internal motions elude us, the
displacement of the totality alone remaining accessible to our
senses. Or else we shall imagine some one of those subtile fluids
which under the name of ether or under other names, have at all
times played so great a rôle in physical theories.
Often one goes further and regards the ether as the sole
primitive matter or even as the only true matter. The more
moderate consider common matter as condensed ether, which is
nothing startling; but others reduce still further its importance
and see in it nothing more than the geometric locus of the ether's
singularities. For instance, what we call matter is for Lord
Kelvin only the locus of points where the ether is animated by
vortex motions; for Riemann, it was the locus of points where
ether is constantly destroyed; for other more recent authors,
Wiechert or Larmor, it is the locus of points where the ether
undergoes a sort of torsion of a very particular nature. If the
attempt is made to occupy one of these points of view, I ask
myself by what right shall we extend to the ether, under pretext
that this is the true matter, mechanical properties observed in
ordinary matter, which is only false matter.
The ancient fluids, caloric, electricity, etc., were abandoned
when it was perceived that heat is not indestructible. But they
were abandoned for another reason also. In materializing them,
their individuality was, so to speak, emphasized, a sort of abyss
was opened between them. This had to be filled up on the coming
of a more vivid feeling of the unity of nature, and the perception
of the intimate relations which bind together all its parts. Not
only did the old physicists, in multiplying fluids, create entities
unnecessarily, but they broke real ties.
It is not sufficient for a theory to affirm no false relations, it
must not hide true relations.
And does our ether really exist? We know the origin of our
belief in the ether. If light reaches us from a distant star, during
several years it was no longer on the star and not yet on the
earth; it must then be somewhere and sustained, so to speak, by
some material support.
The same idea may be expressed under a more mathematical
and more abstract form. What we ascertain are the changes undergone
by material molecules; we see, for instance, that our
photographic plate feels the consequences of phenomena of which
the incandescent mass of the star was the theater several years
before. Now, in ordinary mechanics the state of the system
studied depends only on its state at an instant immediately anterior;
therefore the system satisfies differential equations. On
the contrary, if we should not believe in the ether, the state of the
material universe would depend not only on the state immediately
preceding, but on states much older; the system would
satisfy equations of finite differences. It is to escape this derogation
of the general laws of mechanics that we have invented the
ether.
That would still only oblige us to fill up, with the ether, the
interplanetary void, but not to make it penetrate the bosom of
the material media themselves. Fizeau's experiment goes further.
By the interference of rays which have traversed air or
water in motion, it seems to show us two different media interpenetrating
and yet changing place one with regard to the other.
We seem to touch the ether with the finger.
Yet experiments may be conceived which would make us touch
it still more nearly. Suppose Newton's principle, of the equality
of action and reaction, no longer true if applied to matter alone,
and that we have established it. The geometric sum of all the
forces applied to all the material molecules would no longer be
null. It would be necessary then, if we did not wish to change
all mechanics, to introduce the ether, in order that this action
which matter appeared to experience should be counterbalanced
by the reaction of matter on something.
Or again, suppose we discover that optical and electrical
phenomena are influenced by the motion of the earth. We should
be led to conclude that these phenomena might reveal to us not
only the relative motions of material bodies, but what would
seem to be their absolute motions. Again, an ether would be
necessary, that these so-called absolute motions should not be
their displacements with regard to a void space, but their displacements
with regard to something concrete.
Shall we ever arrive at that? I have not this hope, I shall
soon say why, and yet it is not so absurd, since others have
had it.
For instance, if the theory of Lorentz, of which I shall speak
in detail further on in Chapter XIII., were true, Newton's principle
would not apply to matter alone, and the difference would
not be very far from being accessible to experiment.
On the other hand, many researches have been made on the
influence of the earth's motion. The results have always been
negative. But these experiments were undertaken because the
outcome was not sure in advance, and, indeed, according to the
ruling theories, the compensation would be only approximate,
and one might expect to see precise methods give positive results.
I believe that such a hope is illusory; it was none the less
interesting to show that a success of this sort would open to us,
in some sort, a new world.
And now I must be permitted a digression; I must explain, in
fact, why I do not believe, despite Lorentz, that more precise
observations can ever put in evidence anything else than the relative
displacements of material bodies. Experiments have been
made which should have disclosed the terms of the first order;
the results have been negative; could that be by chance? No
one has assumed that; a general explanation has been sought, and
Lorentz has found it; he has shown that the terms of the first
order must destroy each other, but not those of the second. Then
more precise experiments were made; they also were negative;
neither could this be the effect of chance; an explanation was
necessary; it was found; they always are found; of hypotheses
there is never lack.
But this is not enough; who does not feel that this is still to
leave to chance too great a rôle? Would not that also be a
chance, this singular coincidence which brought it about that a
certain circumstance should come just in the nick of time to
destroy the terms of the first order, and that another circumstance,
wholly different, but just as opportune, should take upon
itself to destroy those of the second order? No, it is necessary to
find an explanation the same for the one as for the other, and
then everything leads us to think that this explanation will
hold good equally well for the terms of higher order, and that the
mutual destruction of these terms will be rigorous and absolute.
Present State of the Science.—In the history of the development
of physics we distinguish two inverse tendencies.
On the one hand, new bonds are continually being discovered
between objects which had seemed destined to remain forever
unconnected; scattered facts cease to be strangers to one another;
they tend to arrange themselves in an imposing synthesis.
Science advances toward unity and simplicity.
On the other hand, observation reveals to us every day new
phenomena; they must long await their place and sometimes, to
make one for them, a corner of the edifice must be demolished.
In the known phenomena themselves, where our crude senses
showed us uniformity, we perceive details from day to day more
varied; what we believed simple becomes complex, and science
appears to advance toward variety and complexity.
Of these two inverse tendencies, which seem to triumph turn
about, which will win? If it be the first, science is possible;
but nothing proves this a priori, and it may well be feared that
after having made vain efforts to bend nature in spite of herself
to our ideal of unity, submerged by the ever-rising flood of our
new riches, we must renounce classifying them, abandon our
ideal, and reduce science to the registration of innumerable
recipes.
To this question we can not reply. All we can do is to observe
the science of to-day and compare it with that of yesterday.
From this examination we may doubtless draw some encouragement.
Half a century ago, hope ran high. The discovery of the
conservation of energy and of its transformations had revealed to
us the unity of force. Thus it showed that the phenomena of
heat could be explained by molecular motions. What was the
nature of these motions was not exactly known, but no one
doubted that it soon would be. For light, the task seemed completely
accomplished. In what concerns electricity, things were
less advanced. Electricity had just annexed magnetism. This
was a considerable step toward unity, and a decisive step.
But how should electricity in its turn enter into the general
unity, how should it be reduced to the universal mechanism?
Of that no one had any idea. Yet the possibility of this reduction
was doubted by none, there was faith. Finally, in what
concerns the molecular properties of material bodies, the reduction
seemed still easier, but all the detail remained hazy. In
a word, the hopes were vast and animated, but vague. To-day,
what do we see? First of all, a prime progress, immense progress.
The relations of electricity and light are now known; the
three realms, of light, of electricity and of magnetism, previously
separated, form now but one; and this annexation seems final.
This conquest, however, has cost us some sacrifices. The optical
phenomena subordinate themselves as particular cases under the
electrical phenomena; so long as they remained isolated, it was
easy to explain them by motions that were supposed to be known
in all their details, that was a matter of course; but now an
explanation, to be acceptable, must be easily capable of extension
to the entire electric domain. Now that is a matter not without
difficulties.
The most satisfactory theory we have is that of Lorentz, which,
as we shall see in the last chapter, explains electric currents by
the motions of little electrified particles; it is unquestionably the
one which best explains the known facts, the one which illuminates
the greatest number of true relations, the one of which most
traces will be found in the final construction. Nevertheless, it
still has a serious defect, which I have indicated above; it is
contrary to Newton's law of the equality of action and reaction;
or rather, this principle, in the eyes of Lorentz, would not be
applicable to matter alone; for it to be true, it would be necessary
to take account of the action of the ether on matter and of the
reaction of matter on the ether.
Now, from what we know at present, it seems probable that
things do not happen in this way.
However that may be, thanks to Lorentz, Fizeau's results on
the optics of moving bodies, the laws of normal and anomalous dispersion
and of absorption find themselves linked to one another
and to the other properties of the ether by bonds which beyond
any doubt will never more be broken. See the facility with which
the new Zeeman effect has found its place already and has even
aided in classifying Faraday's magnetic rotation which had defied
Maxwell's efforts; this facility abundantly proves that the
theory of Lorentz is not an artificial assemblage destined to fall
asunder. It will probably have to be modified, but not destroyed.
But Lorentz had no aim beyond that of embracing in one
totality all the optics and electrodynamics of moving bodies; he
never pretended to give a mechanical explanation of them. Larmor
goes further; retaining the theory of Lorentz in essentials,
he grafts upon it, so to speak, MacCullagh's ideas on the direction
of the motions of the ether.
According to him, the velocity of the ether would have the
same direction and the same magnitude as the magnetic force.
However ingenious this attempt may be, the defect of the theory
of Lorentz remains and is even aggravated. With Lorentz, we do
not know what are the motions of the ether; thanks to this ignorance,
we may suppose them such that, compensating those of
matter, they reestablish the equality of action and reaction.
With Larmor, we know the motions of the ether, and we can
ascertain that the compensation does not take place.
If Larmor has failed, as it seems to me he has, does that mean
that a mechanical explanation is impossible? Far from it: I
have said above that when a phenomenon obeys the two principles
of energy and of least action, it admits of an infinity of mechanical
explanations; so it is, therefore, with the optical and electrical
phenomena.
But this is not enough: for a mechanical explanation to be
good, it must be simple; for choosing it among all which are possible,
there should be other reasons besides the necessity of making
a choice. Well, we have not as yet a theory satisfying this
condition and consequently good for something. Must we lament
this? That would be to forget what is the goal sought; this is
not mechanism; the true, the sole aim is unity.
We must therefore set bounds to our ambition; let us not try
to formulate a mechanical explanation; let us be content with
showing that we could always find one if we wished to. In this
regard we have been successful; the principle of the conservation
of energy has received only confirmations; a second principle has
come to join it, that of least action, put under the form which is
suitable for physics. It also has always been verified, at least
in so far as concerns reversible phenomena which thus obey the
equations of Lagrange, that is to say, the most general laws of
mechanics.
Irreversible phenomena are much more rebellious. Yet these
also are being coordinated, and tend to come into unity; the light
which has illuminated them has come to us from Carnot's principle.
Long did thermodynamics confine itself to the study of
the dilatation of bodies and their changes of state. For some time
past it has been growing bolder and has considerably extended
its domain. We owe to it the theory of the galvanic battery and
that of the thermoelectric phenomena; there is not in all physics
a corner that it has not explored, and it has attacked chemistry
itself.
Everywhere the same laws reign; everywhere, under the diversity
of appearances, is found again Carnot's principle; everywhere
also is found that concept so prodigiously abstract of
entropy, which is as universal as that of energy and seems like it
to cover a reality. Radiant heat seemed destined to escape it; but
recently we have seen that submit to the same laws.
In this way fresh analogies are revealed to us, which may
often be followed into detail; ohmic resistance resembles the
viscosity of liquids; hysteresis would resemble rather the friction
of solids. In all cases, friction would appear to be the type which
the most various irreversible phenomena copy, and this kinship
is real and profound.
Of these phenomena a mechanical explanation, properly so
called, has also been sought. They hardly lent themselves to it.
To find it, it was necessary to suppose that the irreversibility is
only apparent, that the elementary phenomena are reversible and
obey the known laws of dynamics. But the elements are extremely
numerous and blend more and more, so that to our crude sight all
appears to tend toward uniformity, that is, everything seems to
go forward in the same sense without hope of return. The apparent
irreversibility is thus only an effect of the law of great
numbers. But, only a being with infinitely subtile senses, like
Maxwell's imaginary demon, could disentangle this inextricable
skein and turn back the course of the universe.
This conception, which attaches itself to the kinetic theory
of gases, has cost great efforts and has not, on the whole, been
fruitful; but it may become so. This is not the place to examine
whether it does not lead to contradictions and whether it is in
conformity with the true nature of things.
We signalize, however, M. Gouy's original ideas on the Brownian
movement. According to this scientist, this singular motion
should escape Carnot's principle. The particles which it puts in
swing would be smaller than the links of that so compacted skein;
they would therefore be fitted to disentangle them and hence to
make the world go backward. We should almost see Maxwell's
demon at work.
To summarize, the previously known phenomena are better and
better classified, but new phenomena come to claim their place;
most of these, like the Zeeman effect, have at once found it.
But we have the cathode rays, the X-rays, those of uranium
and of radium. Herein is a whole world which no one suspected.
How many unexpected guests must be stowed away?
No one can yet foresee the place they will occupy. But I do
not believe they will destroy the general unity; I think they will
rather complete it. On the one hand, in fact, the new radiations
seem connected with the phenomena of luminescence; not only
do they excite fluorescence, but they sometimes take birth in the
same conditions as it.
Nor are they without kinship with the causes which produce
the electric spark under the action of the ultra-violet light.
Finally, and above all, it is believed that in all these phenomena
are found true ions, animated, it is true, by velocities incomparably
greater than in the electrolytes.
That is all very vague, but it will all become more precise.
Phosphorescence, the action of light on the spark, these were
regions rather isolated and consequently somewhat neglected by
investigators. One may now hope that a new path will be
constructed which will facilitate their communications with the rest
of science.
Not only do we discover new phenomena, but in those we
thought we knew, unforeseen aspects reveal themselves. In the
free ether, the laws retain their majestic simplicity; but matter,
properly so called, seems more and more complex; all that is
said of it is never more than approximate, and at each instant
our formulas require new terms.
Nevertheless the frames are not broken; the relations that we
have recognized between objects we thought simple still subsist
between these same objects when we know their complexity, and
it is that alone which is of importance. Our equations become, it
is true, more and more complicated, in order to embrace more
closely the complexity of nature; but nothing is changed in the
relations which permit the deducing of these equations one from
another. In a word, the form of these equations has persisted.
Take, for example, the laws of reflection: Fresnel had established
them by a simple and seductive theory which experiment
seemed to confirm. Since then more precise researches have
proved that this verification was only approximate; they have
shown everywhere traces of elliptic polarization. But, thanks to
the help that the first approximation gave us, we found forthwith
the cause of these anomalies, which is the presence of a transition
layer; and Fresnel's theory has subsisted in its essentials.
But there is a reflection we can not help making: All these
relations would have remained unperceived if one had at first
suspected the complexity of the objects they connect. It has long
been said: If Tycho had had instruments ten times more precise
neither Kepler, nor Newton, nor astronomy would ever have
been. It is a misfortune for a science to be born too late, when
the means of observation have become too perfect. This is to-day
the case with physical chemistry; its founders are embarrassed
in their general grasp by third and fourth decimals; happily they
are men of a robust faith.
The better one knows the properties of matter the more one
sees continuity reign. Since the labors of Andrews and of van der
Waals, we get an idea of how the passage is made from the liquid
to the gaseous state and that this passage is not abrupt. Similarly,
there is no gap between the liquid and solid states, and in the
proceedings of a recent congress is to be seen, alongside of a work
on the rigidity of liquids, a memoir on the flow of solids.
By this tendency no doubt simplicity loses; some phenomenon
was formerly represented by several straight lines, now these
straights must be joined by curves more or less complicated. In
compensation unity gains notably. Those cut-off categories
quieted the mind, but they did not satisfy it.
Finally the methods of physics have invaded a new domain,
that of chemistry; physical chemistry is born. It is still very
young, but we already see that it will enable us to connect such
phenomena as electrolysis, osmosis and the motions of ions.
From this rapid exposition, what shall we conclude?
Everything considered, we have approached unity; we have
not been as quick as was hoped fifty years ago, we have not always
taken the predicted way; but, finally, we have gained ever so
much ground.
Doubtless it will be astonishing to find here thoughts about
the calculus of probabilities. What has it to do with the method
of the physical sciences? And yet the questions I shall raise without
solving present themselves naturally to the philosopher who
is thinking about physics. So far is this the case that in the
two preceding chapters I have often been led to use the words
'probability' and 'chance.'
'Predicted facts,' as I have said above, 'can only be probable.'
"However solidly founded a prediction may seem to us to be,
we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not prove it
false. But the probability is often so great that practically we
may be satisfied with it." And a little further on I have added:
"See what a rôle the belief in simplicity plays in our generalizations.
We have verified a simple law in a great number of particular
cases; we refuse to admit that this coincidence, so often
repeated, can be a mere effect of chance...."
Thus in a multitude of circumstances the physicist is in the
same position as the gambler who reckons up his chances. As
often as he reasons by induction, he requires more or less consciously
the calculus of probabilities, and this is why I am obliged
to introduce a parenthesis, and interrupt our study of method in
the physical sciences in order to examine a little more closely the
value of this calculus, and what confidence it merits.
The very name calculus of probabilities is a paradox. Probability
opposed to certainty is what we do not know, and how can
we calculate what we do not know? Yet many eminent savants
have occupied themselves with this calculus, and it can not be
denied that science has drawn therefrom no small advantage.
How can we explain this apparent contradiction?
Has probability been defined? Can it even be defined? And
if it can not, how dare we reason about it? The definition, it will
be said, is very simple: the probability of an event is the ratio of
the number of cases favorable to this event to the total number of
possible cases.
A simple example will show how incomplete this definition is.
I throw two dice. What is the probability that one of the two
at least turns up a six? Each die can turn up in six different
ways; the number of possible cases is 6 × 6 = 36; the number of
favorable cases is 11; the probability is 11/36.
That is the correct solution. But could I not just as well say:
The points which turn up on the two dice can form 6 × 7/2 = 21
different combinations? Among these combinations 6 are favorable;
the probability is 6/21.
Now why is the first method of enumerating the possible cases
more legitimate than the second? In any case it is not our
definition that tells us.
We are therefore obliged to complete this definition by saying:
'... to the total number of possible cases provided these cases
are equally probable.' So, therefore, we are reduced to defining
the probable by the probable.
How can we know that two possible cases are equally probable?
Will it be by a convention? If we place at the beginning of each
problem an explicit convention, well and good. We shall then
have nothing to do but apply the rules of arithmetic and of
algebra, and we shall complete our calculation without our result
leaving room for doubt. But if we wish to make the slightest
application of this result, we must prove our convention was
legitimate, and we shall find ourselves in the presence of the very
difficulty we thought to escape.
Will it be said that good sense suffices to show us what convention
should be adopted? Alas! M. Bertrand has amused
himself by discussing the following simple problem: "What is the
probability that a chord of a circle may be greater than the side
of the inscribed equilateral triangle?" The illustrious geometer
successively adopted two conventions which good sense seemed
equally to dictate and with one he found 1/2, with the other 1/3.
The conclusion which seems to follow from all this is that the
calculus of probabilities is a useless science, and that the obscure
instinct which we may call good sense, and to which we are wont
to appeal to legitimatize our conventions, must be distrusted.
But neither can we subscribe to this conclusion; we can not
do without this obscure instinct. Without it science would be
impossible, without it we could neither discover a law nor apply
it. Have we the right, for instance, to enunciate Newton's law?
Without doubt, numerous observations are in accord with it; but
is not this a simple effect of chance? Besides how do we know
whether this law, true for so many centuries, will still be true
next year? To this objection, you will find nothing to reply,
except: 'That is very improbable.'
But grant the law. Thanks to it, I believe myself able to
calculate the position of Jupiter a year from now. Have I the
right to believe this? Who can tell if a gigantic mass of enormous
velocity will not between now and that time pass near the
solar system, and produce unforeseen perturbations? Here again
the only answer is: 'It is very improbable.'
From this point of view, all the sciences would be only unconscious
applications of the calculus of probabilities. To condemn
this calculus would be to condemn the whole of science.
I shall dwell lightly on the scientific problems in which the
intervention of the calculus of probabilities is more evident. In
the forefront of these is the problem of interpolation, in which,
knowing a certain number of values of a function, we seek to
divine the intermediate values.
I shall likewise mention: the celebrated theory of errors of
observation, to which I shall return later; the kinetic theory of
gases, a well-known hypothesis, wherein each gaseous molecule is
supposed to describe an extremely complicated trajectory, but in
which, through the effect of great numbers, the mean phenomena,
alone observable, obey the simple laws of Mariotte and Gay-Lussac.
All these theories are based on the laws of great numbers, and
the calculus of probabilities would evidently involve them in its
ruin. It is true that they have only a particular interest and
that, save as far as interpolation is concerned, these are sacrifices
to which we might readily be resigned.
But, as I have said above, it would not be only these partial
sacrifices that would be in question; it would be the legitimacy of
the whole of science that would be challenged.
I quite see that it might be said: "We are ignorant, and yet
we must act. For action, we have not time to devote ourselves
to an inquiry sufficient to dispel our ignorance. Besides, such an
inquiry would demand an infinite time. We must therefore decide
without knowing; we are obliged to do so, hit or miss, and we must
follow rules without quite believing them. What I know is not
that such and such a thing is true, but that the best course for me
is to act as if it were true." The calculus of probabilities, and
consequently science itself, would thenceforth have merely a practical
value.
Unfortunately the difficulty does not thus disappear. A gambler
wants to try a coup; he asks my advice. If I give it to him,
I shall use the calculus of probabilities, but I shall not guarantee
success. This is what I shall call subjective probability. In this
case, we might be content with the explanation of which I have
just given a sketch. But suppose that an observer is present at
the game, that he notes all its coups, and that the game goes on a
long time. When he makes a summary of his book, he will find
that events have taken place in conformity with the laws of the
calculus of probabilities. This is what I shall call objective
probability, and it is this phenomenon which has to be explained.
There are numerous insurance companies which apply the rules
of the calculus of probabilities, and they distribute to their shareholders
dividends whose objective reality can not be contested.
To invoke our ignorance and the necessity to act does not suffice
to explain them.
Thus absolute skepticism is not admissible. We may distrust,
but we can not condemn en bloc. Discussion is necessary.
I. Classification of the Problems of Probability.—In
order to classify the problems which present themselves à propos
of probabilities, we may look at them from many different points
of view, and, first, from the point of view of generality. I have
said above that probability is the ratio of the number of favorable
cases to the number of possible cases. What for want of a better
term I call the generality will increase with the number of
possible cases. This number may be finite, as, for instance, if we
take a throw of the dice in which the number of possible cases is
36. That is the first degree of generality.
But if we ask, for example, what is the probability that a
point within a circle is within the inscribed square, there are as
many possible cases as there are points in the circle, that is to
say, an infinity. This is the second degree of generality. Generality
can be pushed further still. We may ask the probability that
a function will satisfy a given condition. There are then as many
possible cases as one can imagine different functions. This is the
third degree of generality, to which we rise, for instance, when
we seek to find the most probable law in conformity with a finite
number of observations.
We may place ourselves at a point of view wholly different.
If we were not ignorant, there would be no probability, there
would be room for nothing but certainty. But our ignorance can
not be absolute, for then there would no longer be any probability
at all, since a little light is necessary to attain even this uncertain
science. Thus the problems of probability may be classed according
to the greater or less depth of this ignorance.
In mathematics even we may set ourselves problems of probability.
What is the probability that the fifth decimal of a logarithm
taken at random from a table is a '9'? There is no
hesitation in answering that this probability is 1/10; here we
possess all the data of the problem. We can calculate our logarithm
without recourse to the table, but we do not wish to give
ourselves the trouble. This is the first degree of ignorance.
In the physical sciences our ignorance becomes greater. The
state of a system at a given instant depends on two things: Its
initial state, and the law according to which that state varies. If
we know both this law and this initial state, we shall have then
only a mathematical problem to solve, and we fall back upon the
first degree of ignorance.
But it often happens that we know the law, and do not know
the initial state. It may be asked, for instance, what is the
present distribution of the minor planets? We know that from
all time they have obeyed the laws of Kepler, but we do not know
what was their initial distribution.
In the kinetic theory of gases, we assume that the gaseous
molecules follow rectilinear trajectories, and obey the laws of
impact of elastic bodies. But, as we know nothing of their initial
velocities, we know nothing of their present velocities.
The calculus of probabilities only enables us to predict the
mean phenomena which will result from the combination of these
velocities. This is the second degree of ignorance.
Finally it is possible that not only the initial conditions but
the laws themselves are unknown. We then reach the third degree
of ignorance and in general we can no longer affirm anything at
all as to the probability of a phenomenon.
It often happens that instead of trying to guess an event, by
means of a more or less imperfect knowledge of the law, the
events may be known and we want to find the law; or that instead
of deducing effects from causes, we wish to deduce the causes
from the effects. These are the problems called probability of
causes, the most interesting from the point of view of their scientific
applications.
I play écarté with a gentleman I know to be perfectly honest.
He is about to deal. What is the probability of his turning up
the king? It is 1/8. This is a problem of the probability of
effects.
I play with a gentleman whom I do not know. He has dealt
ten times, and he has turned up the king six times. What is
the probability that he is a sharper? This is a problem in the
probability of causes.
It may be said that this is the essential problem of the experimental
method. I have observed n values of x and the corresponding
values of y. I have found that the ratio of the latter to
the former is practically constant. There is the event, what is
the cause?
Is it probable that there is a general law according to which y
would be proportional to x, and that the small divergencies are
due to errors of observation? This is a type of question that one
is ever asking, and which we unconsciously solve whenever we are
engaged in scientific work.
I am now going to pass in review these different categories of
problems, discussing in succession what I have called above subjective
and objective probability.
II. Probability in Mathematics.—The impossibility of squaring
the circle has been proved since 1882; but even before that
date all geometers considered that impossibility as so 'probable,'
that the Academy of Sciences rejected without examination the
alas! too numerous memoirs on this subject, that some unhappy
madmen sent in every year.
Was the Academy wrong? Evidently not, and it knew well
that in acting thus it did not run the least risk of stifling a discovery
of moment. The Academy could not have proved that it
was right; but it knew quite well that its instinct was not mistaken.
If you had asked the Academicians, they would have
answered: "We have compared the probability that an unknown
savant should have found out what has been vainly sought for so
long, with the probability that there is one madman the more
on the earth; the second appears to us the greater." These are
very good reasons, but there is nothing mathematical about them;
they are purely psychological.
And if you had pressed them further they would have added:
"Why do you suppose a particular value of a transcendental
function to be an algebraic number; and if π were a root of an
algebraic equation, why do you suppose this root to be a period of
the function sin 2x, and not the same about the other roots of this
same equation?" To sum up, they would have invoked the principle
of sufficient reason in its vaguest form.
But what could they deduce from it? At most a rule of conduct
for the employment of their time, more usefully spent at
their ordinary work than in reading a lucubration that inspired
in them a legitimate distrust. But what I call above objective
probability has nothing in common with this first problem.
It is otherwise with the second problem.
Consider the first 10,000 logarithms that we find in a table.
Among these 10,000 logarithms I take one at random. What is
the probability that its third decimal is an even number? You
will not hesitate to answer 1/2; and in fact if you pick out in a
table the third decimals of these 10,000 numbers, you will find
nearly as many even digits as odd.
Or if you prefer, let us write 10,000 numbers corresponding
to our 10,000 logarithms, each of these numbers being +1 if
the third decimal of the corresponding logarithm is even, and
−1 if odd. Then take the mean of these 10,000 numbers.
I do not hesitate to say that the mean of these 10,000 numbers
is probably 0, and if I were actually to calculate it I should
verify that it is extremely small.
But even this verification is needless. I might have rigorously
proved that this mean is less than 0.003. To prove this result, I
should have had to make a rather long calculation for which there
is no room here, and for which I confine myself to citing an article
I published in the Revue générale des Sciences, April 15, 1899.
The only point to which I wish to call attention is the following:
in this calculation, I should have needed only to rest my case on
two facts, to wit, that the first and second derivatives of the logarithm
remain, in the interval considered, between certain limits.
Hence this important consequence that the property is true not
only of the logarithm, but of any continuous function whatever,
since the derivatives of every continuous function are limited.
If I was certain beforehand of the result, it is first, because I
had often observed analogous facts for other continuous functions;
and next, because I made in my mind, in a more or less
unconscious and imperfect manner, the reasoning which led me to
the preceding inequalities, just as a skilled calculator before
finishing his multiplication takes into account what it should
come to approximately.
And besides, since what I call my intuition was only an incomplete
summary of a piece of true reasoning, it is clear why
observation has confirmed my predictions, and why the objective
probability has been in agreement with the subjective probability.
As a third example I shall choose the following problem: A
number u is taken at random, and n is a given very large integer.
What is the probable value of sin nu? This problem has no meaning
by itself. To give it one a convention is needed. We shall
agree that the probability for the number u to lie between a and
a+ is equal to ϕ(a)da; that it is therefore proportional to the
infinitely small interval da, and equal to this multiplied by a
function ϕ(a) depending only on a. As for this function, I
choose it arbitrarily, but I must assume it to be continuous. The
value of sin nu remaining the same when u increases by 2π, I may
without loss of generality assume that u lies between 0 and 2π,
and I shall thus be led to suppose that ϕ(a) is a periodic function
whose period is 2π.
The probable value sought is readily expressed by a simple
integral, and it is easy to show that this integral is less than
2πMk ⁄ nk,
Mk being the maximum value of the kth derivative of ϕ(u). We
see then that if the kth derivative is finite, our probable value will
tend toward 0 when n increases indefinitely, and that more rapidly
than 1/nk−1.
The probable value of sin nu when n is very large is therefore
naught. To define this value I required a convention; but the
result remains the same whatever that convention may be. I
have imposed upon myself only slight restrictions in assuming
that the function ϕ(a) is continuous and periodic, and these hypotheses
are so natural that we may ask ourselves how they can
be escaped.
Examination of the three preceding examples, so different in
all respects, has already given us a glimpse, on the one hand,
of the rôle of what philosophers call the principle of sufficient
reason, and, on the other hand, of the importance of the fact that
certain properties are common to all continuous functions. The
study of probability in the physical sciences will lead us to the
same result.
III. Probability in the Physical Sciences.—We come now
to the problems connected with what I have called the second
degree of ignorance, those, namely, in which we know the law,
but do not know the initial state of the system. I could multiply
examples, but will take only one. What is the probable present
distribution of the minor planets on the zodiac?
We know they obey the laws of Kepler. We may even, without
at all changing the nature of the problem, suppose that their
orbits are all circular, and situated in the same plane, and that we
know this plane. On the other hand, we are in absolute ignorance
as to what was their initial distribution. However, we do not
hesitate to affirm that their distribution is now nearly uniform.
Why?
Let b be the longitude of a minor planet in the initial epoch,
that is to say, the epoch zero. Let a be its mean motion. Its
longitude at the present epoch, that is to say at the epoch t, will
be at + b. To say that the present distribution is uniform is to
say that the mean value of the sines and cosines of multiples of
at + b is zero. Why do we assert this?
Let us represent each minor planet by a point in a plane, to
wit, by a point whose coordinates are precisely a and b. All
these representative points will be contained in a certain region
of the plane, but as they are very numerous this region will
appear dotted with points. We know nothing else about the distribution
of these points.
What do we do when we wish to apply the calculus of probabilities
to such a question? What is the probability that one or
more representative points may be found in a certain portion of
the plane? In our ignorance, we are reduced to making an arbitrary
hypothesis. To explain the nature of this hypothesis, allow
me to use, in lieu of a mathematical formula, a crude but concrete
image. Let us suppose that over the surface of our plane
has been spread an imaginary substance, whose density is variable,
but varies continuously. We shall then agree to say that the
probable number of representative points to be found on a portion
of the plane is proportional to the quantity of fictitious matter
found there. If we have then two regions of the plane of the
same extent, the probabilities that a representative point of one
of our minor planets is found in one or the other of these regions
will be to one another as the mean densities of the fictitious matter
in the one and the other region.
Here then are two distributions, one real, in which the representative
points are very numerous, very close together, but discrete
like the molecules of matter in the atomic hypothesis; the
other remote from reality, in which our representative points are
replaced by continuous fictitious matter. We know that the latter
can not be real, but our ignorance forces us to adopt it.
If again we had some idea of the real distribution of the
representative points, we could arrange it so that in a region
of some extent the density of this imaginary continuous matter
would be nearly proportional to the number of the representative
points, or, if you wish, to the number of atoms which are contained
in that region. Even that is impossible, and our ignorance
is so great that we are forced to choose arbitrarily the function
which defines the density of our imaginary matter. Only we shall
be forced to a hypothesis from which we can hardly get away,
we shall suppose that this function is continuous. That is sufficient,
as we shall see, to enable us to reach a conclusion.
What is at the instant t the probable distribution of the minor
planets? Or rather what is the probable value of the sine of the
longitude at the instant t, that is to say of sin (at + b)? We
made at the outset an arbitrary convention, but if we adopt it,
this probable value is entirely defined. Divide the plane into elements
of surface. Consider the value of sin (at + b) at the center
of each of these elements; multiply this value by the surface
of the element, and by the corresponding density of the imaginary
matter. Take then the sum for all the elements of the plane.
This sum, by definition, will be the probable mean value we seek,
which will thus be expressed by a double integral. It may be
thought at first that this mean value depends on the choice of the
function which defines the density of the imaginary matter, and
that, as this function ϕ is arbitrary, we can, according to the
arbitrary choice which we make, obtain any mean value. This
is not so.
A simple calculation shows that our double integral decreases
very rapidly when t increases. Thus I could not quite tell what
hypothesis to make as to the probability of this or that initial
distribution; but whatever the hypothesis made, the result will
be the same, and this gets me out of my difficulty.
Whatever be the function ϕ, the mean value tends toward zero
as t increases, and as the minor planets have certainly accomplished
a very great number of revolutions, I may assert that this
mean value is very small.
I may choose ϕ as I wish, save always one restriction: this
function must be continuous; and, in fact, from the point of view
of subjective probability, the choice of a discontinuous function
would have been unreasonable. For instance, what reason could
I have for supposing that the initial longitude might be exactly
0°, but that it could not lie between 0° and 1°?
But the difficulty reappears if we take the point of view of
objective probability, if we pass from our imaginary distribution
in which the fictitious matter was supposed continuous to the
real distribution in which our representative points form, as it
were, discrete atoms.
The mean value of sin (at + b) will be represented quite
simply by
(1/n) Σ sin (at + b),
n being the number of minor planets. In lieu of a double integral
referring to a continuous function, we shall have a sum of
discrete terms. And yet no one will seriously doubt that this
mean value is practically very small.
Our representative points being very close together, our discrete
sum will in general differ very little from an integral.
An integral is the limit toward which a sum of terms tends
when the number of these terms is indefinitely increased. If the
terms are very numerous, the sum will differ very little from
its limit, that is to say from the integral, and what I said of this
latter will still be true of the sum itself.
Nevertheless, there are exceptions. If, for instance, for all
the minor planets,
b = π/2 − at,
the longitude for all the planets at the time t would be π/2, and
the mean value would evidently be equal to unity. For this to
be the case, it would be necessary that at the epoch 0, the minor
planets must have all been lying on a spiral of peculiar form, with
its spires very close together. Every one will admit that such an
initial distribution is extremely improbable (and, even supposing
it realized, the distribution would not be uniform at the present
time, for example, on January 1, 1913, but it would become so
a few years later).
Why then do we think this initial distribution improbable?
This must be explained, because if we had no reason for rejecting
as improbable this absurd hypothesis everything would break
down, and we could no longer make any affirmation about the
probability of this or that present distribution.
Once more we shall invoke the principle of sufficient reason to
which we must always recur. We might admit that at the beginning
the planets were distributed almost in a straight line. We
might admit that they were irregularly distributed. But it seems
to us that there is no sufficient reason for the unknown cause that
gave them birth to have acted along a curve so regular and yet so
complicated, which would appear to have been expressly chosen
so that the present distribution would not be uniform.
IV. Rouge et Noir.—The questions raised by games of chance,
such as roulette, are, fundamentally, entirely analogous to those
we have just treated. For example, a wheel is partitioned into
a great number of equal subdivisions, alternately red and black.
A needle is whirled with force, and after having made a great
number of revolutions, it stops before one of these subdivisions.
The probability that this division is red is evidently 1/2. The
needle describes an angle θ, including several complete revolutions.
I do not know what is the probability that the needle may
be whirled with a force such that this angle should lie between θ
and θ + dθ; but I can make a convention. I can suppose that this
probability is ϕ(θ)dθ. As for the function ϕ(θ), I can choose it
in an entirely arbitrary manner. There is nothing that can guide
me in my choice, but I am naturally led to suppose this function
continuous.
Let ε be the length (measured on the circumference of radius
1) of each red and black subdivision. We have to calculate the
integral of ϕ(θ)dθ, extending it, on the one hand, to all the red
divisions and, on the other hand, to all the black divisions, and
to compare the results.
Consider an interval 2ε, comprising a red division and a black
division which follows it. Let M and m be the greatest and least
values of the function ϕ(θ) in this interval. The integral extended
to the red divisions will be smaller than ΣMε; the integral extended
to the black divisions will be greater than Σmε; the difference
will therefore be less than Σ(M − m)ε. But, if the function
θ is supposed continuous; if, besides, the interval ε is very
small with respect to the total angle described by the needle,
the difference M − m will be very small. The difference of the
two integrals will therefore be very small, and the probability
will be very nearly 1/2.
We see that without knowing anything of the function θ, I
must act as if the probability were 1/2. We understand, on the
other hand, why, if, placing myself at the objective point of
view, I observe a certain number of coups, observation will give
me about as many black coups as red.
All players know this objective law; but it leads them into a
remarkable error, which has been often exposed, but into which
they always fall again. When the red has won, for instance, six
times running, they bet on the black, thinking they are playing a
safe game; because, say they, it is very rare that red wins seven
times running.
In reality their probability of winning remains 1/2. Observation
shows, it is true, that series of seven consecutive reds are very
rare, but series of six reds followed by a black are just as rare.
They have noticed the rarity of the series of seven reds; if
they have not remarked the rarity of six reds and a black, it is
only because such series strike the attention less.
V. The Probability of Causes.—We now come to the problems
of the probability of causes, the most important from the
point of view of scientific applications. Two stars, for instance,
are very close together on the celestial sphere. Is this apparent
contiguity a mere effect of chance? Are these stars, although on
almost the same visual ray, situated at very different distances
from the earth, and consequently very far from one another?
Or, perhaps, does the apparent correspond to a real contiguity?
This is a problem on the probability of causes.
I recall first that at the outset of all problems of the probability
of effects that have hitherto occupied us, we have always
had to make a convention, more or less justified. And if in most
cases the result was, in a certain measure, independent of this
convention, this was only because of certain hypotheses which
permitted us to reject a priori discontinuous functions, for example,
or certain absurd conventions.
We shall find something analogous when we deal with the
probability of causes. An effect may be produced by the cause
A or by the cause B. The effect has just been observed. We
ask the probability that it is due to the cause A. This is an a
posteriori probability of cause. But I could not calculate it, if
a convention more or less justified did not tell me in advance
what is the a priori probability for the cause A to come into
play; I mean the probability of this event for some one who had
not observed the effect.
The better to explain myself I go back to the example of the
game of écarté mentioned above. My adversary deals for the
first time and he turns up a king. What is the probability that he
is a sharper? The formulas ordinarily taught give 8/9, a result
evidently rather surprising. If we look at it closer, we see that
the calculation is made as if, before sitting down at the table, I
had considered that there was one chance in two that my adversary
was not honest. An absurd hypothesis, because in that case
I should have certainly not played with him, and this explains
the absurdity of the conclusion.
The convention about the a priori probability was unjustified,
and that is why the calculation of the a posteriori probability led
me to an inadmissible result. We see the importance of this preliminary
convention. I shall even add that if none were made,
the problem of the a posteriori probability would have no meaning.
It must always be made either explicitly or tacitly.
Pass to an example of a more scientific character. I wish to
determine an experimental law. This law, when I know it, can
be represented by a curve. I make a certain number of isolated
observations; each of these will be represented by a point. When
I have obtained these different points, I draw a curve between
them, striving to pass as near to them as possible and yet preserve
for my curve a regular form, without angular points, or inflections
too accentuated, or brusque variation of the radius of curvature.
This curve will represent for me the probable law, and I
assume not only that it will tell me the values of the function
intermediate between those which have been observed, but also
that it will give me the observed values themselves more exactly
than direct observation. This is why I make it pass near the
points, and not through the points themselves.
Here is a problem in the probability of causes. The effects
are the measurements I have recorded; they depend on a combination
of two causes: the true law of the phenomenon and the
errors of observation. Knowing the effects, we have to seek the
probability that the phenomenon obeys this law or that, and that
the observations have been affected by this or that error. The
most probable law then corresponds to the curve traced, and the
most probable error of an observation is represented by the distance
of the corresponding point from this curve.
But the problem would have no meaning if, before any observation,
I had not fashioned an a priori idea of the probability of
this or that law, and of the chances of error to which I am exposed.
If my instruments are good (and that I knew before making
the observations), I shall not permit my curve to depart much
from the points which represent the rough measurements. If
they are bad, I may go a little further away from them in order
to obtain a less sinuous curve; I shall sacrifice more to regularity.
Why then is it that I seek to trace a curve without sinuosities?
It is because I consider a priori a law represented by a continuous
function (or by a function whose derivatives of high order
are small), as more probable than a law not satisfying these conditions.
Without this belief, the problem of which we speak
would have no meaning; interpolation would be impossible; no
law could be deduced from a finite number of observations;
science would not exist.
Fifty years ago physicists considered, other things being equal,
a simple law as more probable than a complicated law. They
even invoked this principle in favor of Mariotte's law as against
the experiments of Regnault. To-day they have repudiated this
belief; and yet, how many times are they compelled to act as
though they still held it! However that may be, what remains
of this tendency is the belief in continuity, and we have just
seen that if this belief were to disappear in its turn, experimental
science would become impossible.
VI. The Theory of Errors.—We are thus led to speak of
the theory of errors, which is directly connected with the problem
of the probability of causes. Here again we find effects, to wit,
a certain number of discordant observations, and we seek to
divine the causes, which are, on the one hand, the real value of the
quantity to be measured; on the other hand, the error made in
each isolated observation. It is necessary to calculate what is
a posteriori the probable magnitude of each error, and consequently
the probable value of the quantity to be measured.
But as I have just explained, we should not know how to undertake
this calculation if we did not admit a priori, that is to
say, before all observation, a law of probability of errors. Is
there a law of errors?
The law of errors admitted by all calculators is Gauss's law,
which is represented by a certain transcendental curve known
under the name of 'the bell.'
But first it is proper to recall the classic distinction between
systematic and accidental errors. If we measure a length with
too long a meter, we shall always find too small a number, and
it will be of no use to measure several times; this is a systematic
error. If we measure with an accurate meter, we may, however,
make a mistake; but we go wrong, now too much, now too little,
and when we take the mean of a great number of measurements,
the error will tend to grow small. These are accidental errors.
It is evident from the first that systematic errors can not
satisfy Gauss's law; but do the accidental errors satisfy it? A
great number of demonstrations have been attempted; almost
all are crude paralogisms. Nevertheless, we may demonstrate
Gauss's law by starting from the following hypotheses: the error
committed is the result of a great number of partial and independent
errors; each of the partial errors is very little and
besides, obeys any law of probability, provided that the probability
of a positive error is the same as that of an equal negative
error. It is evident that these conditions will be often but not
always fulfilled, and we may reserve the name of accidental for
errors which satisfy them.
We see that the method of least squares is not legitimate in
every case; in general the physicists are more distrustful of it
than the astronomers. This is, no doubt, because the latter, besides
the systematic errors to which they and the physicists are
subject alike, have to control with an extremely important source
of error which is wholly accidental; I mean atmospheric
undulations. So it is very curious to hear a physicist discuss with an
astronomer about a method of observation. The physicist, persuaded
that one good measurement is worth more than many
bad ones, is before all concerned with eliminating by dint of
precautions the least systematic errors, and the astronomer says
to him: 'But thus you can observe only a small number of stars;
the accidental errors will not disappear.'
What should we conclude? Must we continue to use the
method of least squares? We must distinguish. We have eliminated
all the systematic errors we could suspect; we know well
there are still others, but we can not detect them; yet it is
necessary to make up our mind and adopt a definitive value
which will be regarded as the probable value; and for that it is
evident the best thing to do is to apply Gauss's method. We
have only applied a practical rule referring to subjective probability.
There is nothing more to be said.
But we wish to go farther and affirm that not only is the
probable value so much, but that the probable error in the result
is so much. This is absolutely illegitimate; it would be true
only if we were sure that all the systematic errors were eliminated,
and of that we know absolutely nothing. We have two
series of observations; by applying the rule of least squares, we
find that the probable error in the first series is twice as small
as in the second. The second series may, however, be better than
the first, because the first perhaps is affected by a large systematic
error. All we can say is that the first series is probably
better than the second, since its accidental error is smaller, and
we have no reason to affirm that the systematic error is greater
for one of the series than for the other, our ignorance on this
point being absolute.
VII. Conclusions.—In the lines which precede, I have set
many problems without solving any of them. Yet I do not regret
having written them, because they will perhaps invite the reader
to reflect on these delicate questions.
However that may be, there are certain points which seem
well established. To undertake any calculation of probability,
and even for that calculation to have any meaning, it is necessary
to admit, as point of departure, a hypothesis or convention
which has always something arbitrary about it. In the choice
of this convention, we can be guided only by the principle of
sufficient reason. Unfortunately this principle is very vague
and very elastic, and in the cursory examination we have just
made, we have seen it take many different forms. The form under
which we have met it most often is the belief in continuity, a
belief which it would be difficult to justify by apodeictic reasoning,
but without which all science would be impossible. Finally
the problems to which the calculus of probabilities may be applied
with profit are those in which the result is independent of the
hypothesis made at the outset, provided only that this hypothesis
satisfies the condition of continuity.
Fresnel's Theory.—The best example[5] that can be chosen
of physics in the making is the theory of light and its relations to
the theory of electricity. Thanks to Fresnel, optics is the best
developed part of physics; the so-called wave-theory forms a
whole truly satisfying to the mind. We must not, however, ask
of it what it can not give us.
The object of mathematical theories is not to reveal to us the
true nature of things; this would be an unreasonable pretension.
Their sole aim is to coordinate the physical laws which experiment
reveals to us, but which, without the help of mathematics,
we should not be able even to state.
It matters little whether the ether really exists; that is the
affair of metaphysicians. The essential thing for us is that
everything happens as if it existed, and that this hypothesis is
convenient for the explanation of phenomena. After all, have
we any other reason to believe in the existence of material
objects? That, too, is only a convenient hypothesis; only this
will never cease to be so, whereas, no doubt, some day the ether
will be thrown aside as useless. But even at that day, the laws
of optics and the equations which translate them analytically
will remain true, at least as a first approximation. It will always
be useful, then, to study a doctrine that unites all these equations.
The undulatory theory rests on a molecular hypothesis. For
those who think they have thus discovered the cause under the
law, this is an advantage. For the others it is a reason for distrust.
But this distrust seems to me as little justified as the
illusion of the former.
These hypotheses play only a secondary part. They might be
sacrificed. They usually are not, because then the explanation
would lose in clearness; but that is the only reason.
In fact, if we looked closer we should see that only two things
are borrowed from the molecular hypotheses: the principle of the
conservation of energy and the linear form of the equations,
which is the general law of small movements, as of all small
variations.
This explains why most of Fresnel's conclusions remain unchanged
when we adopt the electromagnetic theory of light.
Maxwell's Theory.—Maxwell, we know, connected by a
close bond two parts of physics until then entirely foreign to one
another, optics and electricity. By blending thus in a vaster
whole, in a higher harmony, the optics of Fresnel has not ceased
to be alive. Its various parts subsist, and their mutual relations
are still the same. Only the language we used to express them
has changed; and, on the other hand, Maxwell has revealed to us
other relations, before unsuspected, between the different parts
of optics and the domain of electricity.
When a French reader first opens Maxwell's book, a feeling
of uneasiness and often even of mistrust mingles at first with his
admiration. Only after a prolonged acquaintance and at the
cost of many efforts does this feeling disappear. There are even
some eminent minds that never lose it.
Why are the English scientist's ideas with such difficulty
acclimatized among us? It is, no doubt, because the education
received by the majority of enlightened Frenchmen predisposes
them to appreciate precision and logic above every other quality.
The old theories of mathematical physics gave us in this respect
complete satisfaction. All our masters, from Laplace to
Cauchy, have proceeded in the same way. Starting from clearly
stated hypotheses, they deduced all their consequences with
mathematical rigor, and then compared them with experiment.
It seemed their aim to give every branch of physics the same precision
as celestial mechanics.
A mind accustomed to admire such models is hard to suit with
a theory. Not only will it not tolerate the least appearance of
contradiction, but it will demand that the various parts be
logically connected with one another, and that the number of
distinct hypotheses be reduced to minimum.
This is not all; it will have still other demands, which seem to
me less reasonable. Behind the matter which our senses can
reach, and which experiment tells us of, it will desire to see
another, and in its eyes the only real, matter, which will have
only purely geometric properties, and whose atoms will be nothing
but mathematical points, subject to the laws of dynamics
alone. And yet these atoms, invisible and without color, it will
seek by an unconscious contradiction to represent to itself and
consequently to identify as closely as possible with common
matter.
Then only will it be fully satisfied and imagine that it has
penetrated the secret of the universe. If this satisfaction is deceitful,
it is none the less difficult to renounce.
Thus, on opening Maxwell, a Frenchman expects to find a
theoretical whole as logical and precise as the physical optics
based on the hypothesis of the ether; he thus prepares for himself
a disappointment which I should like to spare the reader by
informing him immediately of what he must look for in Maxwell,
and what he can not find there.
Maxwell does not give a mechanical explanation of electricity
and magnetism; he confines himself to demonstrating that such
an explanation is possible.
He shows also that optical phenomena are only a special case
of electromagnetic phenomena. From every theory of electricity,
one can therefore deduce immediately a theory of light.
The converse unfortunately is not true; from a complete explanation
of light, it is not always easy to derive a complete explanation
of electric phenomena. This is not easy, in particular,
if we wish to start from Fresnel's theory. Doubtless it would
not be impossible; but nevertheless we must ask whether we are
not going to be forced to renounce admirable results that we
thought definitely acquired. That seems a step backward; and
many good minds are not willing to submit to it.
When the reader shall have consented to limit his hopes, he
will still encounter other difficulties. The English scientist does
not try to construct a single edifice, final and well ordered; he
seems rather to erect a great number of provisional and independent
constructions, between which communication is difficult
and sometimes impossible.
Take as example the chapter in which he explains electrostatic
attractions by pressures and tensions in the dielectric medium.
This chapter might be omitted without making thereby the rest
of the book less clear or complete; and, on the other hand, it contains
a theory complete in itself which one could understand without
having read a single line that precedes or follows. But it
is not only independent of the rest of the work; it is difficult to
reconcile with the fundamental ideas of the book. Maxwell does
not even attempt this reconciliation; he merely says: "I have
not been able to make the next step, namely, to account by mechanical
considerations for these stresses in the dielectric."
This example will suffice to make my thought understood; I
could cite many others. Thus who would suspect, in reading
the pages devoted to magnetic rotary polarization, that there is
an identity between optical and magnetic phenomena?
One must not then flatter himself that he can avoid all contradiction;
to that it is necessary to be resigned. In fact, two
contradictory theories, provided one does not mingle them, and
if one does not seek in them the basis of things, may both be
useful instruments of research; and perhaps the reading of
Maxwell would be less suggestive if he had not opened up to us
so many new and divergent paths.
The fundamental idea, however, is thus a little obscured. So
far is this the case that in the majority of popularized versions
it is the only point completely left aside.
I feel, then, that the better to make its importance stand out,
I ought to explain in what this fundamental idea consists. But
for that a short digression is necessary.
The Mechanical Explanation of Physical Phenomena.—There
is in every physical phenomenon a certain number of
parameters which experiment reaches directly and allows us to
measure. I shall call these the parameters q.
Observation then teaches us the laws of the variations of these
parameters; and these laws can generally be put in the form
of differential equations, which connect the parameters q with
the time.
What is it necessary to do to give a mechanical interpretation
of such a phenomenon?
One will try to explain it either by the motions of ordinary
matter, or by those of one or more hypothetical fluids.
These fluids will be considered as formed of a very great number
of isolated molecules m.
When shall we say, then, that we have a complete mechanical
explanation of the phenomenon? It will be, on the one hand,
when we know the differential equations satisfied by the coordinates
of these hypothetical molecules m, equations which, moreover,
must conform to the principles of dynamics; and, on the
other hand, when we know the relations that define the coordinates
of the molecules m as functions of the parameters q accessible
to experiment.
These equations, as I have said, must conform to the principles
of dynamics, and, in particular, to the principle of the
conservation of energy and the principle of least action.
The first of these two principles teaches us that the total energy
is constant and that this energy is divided into two parts:
1º The kinetic energy, or vis viva, which depends on the
masses of the hypothetical molecules m, and their velocities, and
which I shall call T.
2º The potential energy, which depends only on the coordinates
of these molecules and which I shall call U. It is the sum
of the two energies T and U which is constant.
What now does the principle of least action tell us? It tells
us that to pass from the initial position occupied at the instant t0
to the final position occupied at the instant t1, the system must
take such a path that, in the interval of time that elapses between
the two instants t0 and t1, the average value of 'the
action' (that is to say, of the difference between the two energies
T and U) shall be as small as possible.
If the two functions T and U are known, this principle suffices
to determine the equations of motion.
Among all the possible ways of passing from one position to
another, there is evidently one for which the average value of
the action is less than for any other. There is, moreover, only
one; and it results from this that the principle of least action
suffices to determine the path followed and consequently the
equations of motion.
Thus we obtain what are called the equations of Lagrange.
In these equations, the independent variables are the coordinates
of the hypothetical molecules m; but I now suppose that
one takes as variables the parameters q directly accessible to experiment.
The two parts of the energy must then be expressed as functions
of the parameters q and of their derivatives. They will
evidently appear under this form to the experimenter. The
latter will naturally try to define the potential and the kinetic
energy by the aid of quantities that he can directly observe.[6]
That granted, the system will always go from one position to
another by a path such that the average action shall be a minimum.
It matters little that T and U are now expressed by the aid
of the parameters q and their derivatives; it matters little that it
is also by means of these parameters that we define the initial and
final positions; the principle of least action remains always true.
Now here again, of all the paths that lead from one position
to another, there is one for which the average action is a minimum,
and there is only one. The principle of least action
suffices, then, to determine the differential equations which define
the variations of the parameters q.
The equations thus obtained are another form of the equations
of Lagrange.
To form these equations we need to know neither the relations
that connect the parameters q with the coordinates of the
hypothetical molecules, nor the masses of these molecules, nor
the expression of U as a function of the coordinates of these
molecules.
All we need to know is the expression of U as a function of
the parameters, and that of T as a function of the parameters q
and their derivatives, that is, the expressions of the kinetic and
of the potential energy as functions of the experimental data.
Then we shall have one of two things: either for a suitable
choice of the functions T and U, the equations of Lagrange, constructed
as we have just said, will be identical with the differential
equations deduced from experiments; or else there will
exist no functions T and U, for which this agreement takes place.
In the latter case it is clear that no mechanical explanation is
possible.
The necessary condition for a mechanical explanation to be
possible is therefore that we can choose the functions T and U
in such a way as to satisfy the principle of least action, which involves
that of the conservation of energy.
This condition, moreover, is sufficient. Suppose, in fact, that
we have found a function U of the parameters q, which represents
one of the parts of the energy; that another part of the
energy, which we shall represent by T, is a function of the
parameters q and their derivatives, and that it is a homogeneous
polynomial of the second degree with respect to these derivatives;
and finally that the equations of Lagrange, formed by means of
these two functions, T and U, conform to the data of the
experiment.
What is necessary in order to deduce from this a mechanical
explanation? It is necessary that U can be regarded as the potential
energy of a system and T as the vis viva of the same
system.
There is no difficulty as to U, but can T be regarded as the
vis viva of a material system?
It is easy to show that this is always possible, and even in
an infinity of ways. I will confine myself to referring for more
details to the preface of my work, 'Électricité et optique.'
Thus if the principle of least action can not be satisfied, no
mechanical explanation is possible; if it can be satisfied, there is
not only one, but an infinity, whence it follows that as soon as
there is one there is an infinity of others.
One more observation.
Among the quantities that experiment gives us directly, we
shall regard some as functions of the coordinates of our hypothetical
molecules; these are our parameters q. We shall look
upon the others as dependent not only on the coordinates, but on
the velocities, or, what comes to the same thing, on the derivatives
of the parameters q, or as combinations of these parameters and
their derivatives.
And then a question presents itself: among all these quantities
measured experimentally, which shall we choose to represent the
parameters q? Which shall we prefer to regard as the derivatives
of these parameters? This choice remains arbitrary to a
very large extent; but, for a mechanical explanation to be possible,
it suffices if we can make the choice in such a way as to
accord with the principle of least action.
And then Maxwell asked himself whether he could make this
choice and that of the two energies T and U, in such a way
that the electrical phenomena would satisfy this principle. Experiment
shows us that the energy of an electromagnetic field is
decomposed into two parts, the electrostatic energy and the electrodynamic
energy. Maxwell observed that if we regard the
first as representing the potential energy U, the second as representing
the kinetic energy T; if, moreover, the electrostatic
charges of the conductors are considered as parameters q and
the intensities of the currents as the derivatives of other parameters
q; under these conditions, I say, Maxwell observed that the
electric phenomena satisfy the principle of least action. Thenceforth
he was certain of the possibility of a mechanical explanation.
If he had explained this idea at the beginning of his book
instead of relegating it to an obscure part of the second volume,
it would not have escaped the majority of readers.
If, then, a phenomenon admits of a complete mechanical explanation,
it will admit of an infinity of others, that will render
an account equally well of all the particulars revealed by experiment.
And this is confirmed by the history of every branch of
physics; in optics, for instance, Fresnel believed vibration to be
perpendicular to the plane of polarization; Neumann regarded
it as parallel to this plane. An 'experimentum crucis' has long
been sought which would enable us to decide between these two
theories, but it has not been found.
In the same way, without leaving the domain of electricity,
we may ascertain that the theory of two fluids and that of the
single fluid both account in a fashion equally satisfactory for all
the observed laws of electrostatics.
All these facts are easily explicable, thanks to the properties
of the equations of Lagrange which I have just recalled.
It is easy now to comprehend what is Maxwell's fundamental
idea.
To demonstrate the possibility of a mechanical explanation of
electricity, we need not preoccupy ourselves with finding this
explanation itself; it suffices us to know the expression of the
two functions T and U, which are the two parts of energy, to
form with these two functions the equations of Lagrange and
then to compare these equations with the experimental laws.
Among all these possible explanations, how make a choice for
which the aid of experiment fails us? A day will come perhaps
when physicists will not interest themselves in these questions,
inaccessible to positive methods, and will abandon them to the
metaphysicians. This day has not yet arrived; man does not
resign himself so easily to be forever ignorant of the foundation
of things.
Our choice can therefore be further guided only by considerations
where the part of personal appreciation is very great; there
are, however, solutions that all the world will reject because of
their whimsicality, and others that all the world will prefer because
of their simplicity.
In what concerns electricity and magnetism, Maxwell abstains
from making any choice. It is not that he systematically disdains
all that is unattainable by positive methods; the time he
has devoted to the kinetic theory of gases sufficiently proves that.
I will add that if, in his great work, he develops no complete
explanation, he had previously attempted to give one in an article
in the Philosophical Magazine. The strangeness and the complexity
of the hypotheses he had been obliged to make had led
him afterwards to give this up.
The same spirit is found throughout the whole work. What
is essential, that is to say what must remain common to all
theories, is made prominent; all that would only be suitable to
a particular theory is nearly always passed over in silence. Thus
the reader finds himself in the presence of a form almost devoid
of matter, which he is at first tempted to take for a fugitive
shadow not to be grasped. But the efforts to which he is thus
condemned force him to think and he ends by comprehending
what was often rather artificial in the theoretic constructs he
had previously only wondered at.
The history of electrodynamics is particularly instructive from
our point of view.
Ampère entitled his immortal work, 'Théorie des phénomènes
électrodynamiques, uniquement fondée sur l'expérience.' He
therefore imagined that he had made no hypothesis, but he had
made them, as we shall soon see; only he made them without
being conscious of it.
His successors, on the other hand, perceived them, since their
attention was attracted by the weak points in Ampère's solution.
They made new hypotheses, of which this time they were fully
conscious; but how many times it was necessary to change them
before arriving at the classic system of to-day which is perhaps
not yet final; this we shall see.
I. Ampere's Theory.—When Ampère studied experimentally
the mutual actions of currents, he operated and he only could
operate with closed currents.
It was not that he denied the possibility of open currents.
If two conductors are charged with positive and negative electricity
and brought into communication by a wire, a current is
established going from one to the other, which continues until the
two potentials are equal. According to the ideas of Ampère's
time this was an open current; the current was known to go
from the first conductor to the second, it was not seen to return
from the second to the first.
So Ampère considered as open currents of this nature, for example,
the currents of discharge of condensers; but he could not
make them the objects of his experiments because their duration
is too short.
Another sort of open current may also be imagined. I suppose
two conductors, A and B, connected by a wire AMB. Small
conducting masses in motion first come in contact with the
conductor B, take from it an electric charge, leave contact with
B and move along the path BNA, and, transporting with them
their charge, come into contact with A and give to it their charge,
which returns then to B along the wire AMB.
Now there we have in a sense a closed circuit, since the electricity
describes the closed circuit BNAMB; but the two parts
of this current are very different. In the wire AMB, the electricity
is displaced through a fixed conductor, like a voltaic current,
overcoming an ohmic resistance and developing heat; we
say that it is displaced by conduction. In the part BNA, the
electricity is carried by a moving conductor; it is said to be displaced
by convection.
If then the current of convection is considered as altogether
analogous to the current of conduction, the circuit BNAMB is
closed; if, on the contrary, the convection current is not 'a true
current' and, for example, does not act on the magnet, there
remains only the conduction current AMB, which is open.
For example, if we connect by a wire the two poles of a Holtz
machine, the charged rotating disc transfers the electricity by
convection from one pole to the other, and it returns to the first
pole by conduction through the wire.
But currents of this sort are very difficult to produce with appreciable
intensity. With the means at Ampère's disposal, we
may say that this was impossible.
To sum up, Ampère could conceive of the existence of two
kinds of open currents, but he could operate on neither because
they were not strong enough or because their duration was too
short.
Experiment therefore could only show him the action of a
closed current on a closed current, or, more accurately, the action
of a closed current on a portion of a current, because a current
can be made to describe a closed circuit composed of a moving
part and a fixed part. It is possible then to study the displacements
of the moving part under the action of another closed
current.
On the other hand, Ampère had no means of studying the
action of an open current, either on a closed current or another
open current.
1. The Case of Closed Currents.—In the case of the mutual
action of two closed currents, experiment revealed to Ampère remarkably
simple laws.
I recall rapidly here those which will be useful to us in the
sequel:
1º If the intensity of the currents is kept constant, and if
the two circuits, after having undergone any deformations and
displacements whatsoever, return finally to their initial positions,
the total work of the electrodynamic actions will be null.
In other words, there is an electrodynamic potential of the
two circuits, proportional to the product of the intensities, and
depending on the form and relative position of the circuits; the
work of the electrodynamic actions is equal to the variation of
this potential.
2º The action of a closed solenoid is null.
3º The action of a circuit C on another voltaic circuit C´ depends
only on the 'magnetic field' developed by this circuit. At
each point in space we can in fact define in magnitude and direction
a certain force called magnetic force, which enjoys the following
properties:
(a) The force exercised by C on a magnetic pole is applied to
that pole and is equal to the magnetic force multiplied by the
magnetic mass of that pole;
(b) A very short magnetic needle tends to take the direction
of the magnetic force, and the couple to which it tends to reduce
is proportional to the magnetic force, the magnetic moment of
the needle and the sine of the dip of the needle;
(c) If the circuit C is displaced, the work of the electrodynamic
action exercised by C on C´ will be equal to the increment
of the 'flow of magnetic force' which passes through the circuit.
2. Action of a Closed Current on a Portion of Current.—Ampère
not having been able to produce an open current, properly
so called, had only one way of studying the action of a
closed current on a portion of current.
This was by operating on a circuit C composed of two parts,
the one fixed, the other movable. The movable part was, for
instance, a movable wire αβ whose extremities α and β could
slide along a fixed wire. In one of the positions of the movable
wire, the end α rested on the A of the fixed wire and the extremity
β on the point B of the fixed wire. The current circulated
from α to β, that is to say, from A to B along the movable wire,
and then it returned from B to A along the fixed wire. This
current was therefore closed.
In a second position, the movable wire having slipped, the extremity
α rested on another point A´ of the fixed wire, and the
extremity β on another point B´ of the fixed wire. The current
circulated then from α to β, that is to say from A´ to B´ along the
movable wire, and it afterwards returned from B´ to B, then
from B to A, then finally from A to A´, always following the
fixed wire. The current was therefore also closed.
If a like current is subjected to the action of a closed current
C, the movable part will be displaced just as if it were acted
upon by a force. Ampère assumes that the apparent force to
which this movable part AB seems thus subjected, representing
the action of the C on the portion αβ of the current, is the same
as if αβ were traversed by an open current, stopping at α and β,
in place of being traversed by a closed current which after arriving
at β returns to α through the fixed part of the circuit.
This hypothesis seems natural enough, and Ampère made it
unconsciously; nevertheless it is not necessary, since we shall see
further on that Helmholtz rejected it. However that may be, it
permitted Ampère, though he had never been able to produce an
open current, to enunciate the laws of the action of a closed current
on an open current, or even on an element of current.
The laws are simple:
1º The force which acts on an element of current is applied
to this element; it is normal to the element and to the magnetic
force, and proportional to the component of this magnetic force
which is normal to the element.
2º The action of a closed solenoid on an element of current is
null.
But the electrodynamic potential has disappeared, that is to
say that, when a closed current and an open current, whose intensities
have been maintained constant, return to their initial
positions, the total work is not null.
3. Continuous Rotations.—Among electrodynamic experiments,
the most remarkable are those in which continuous rotations
are produced and which are sometimes called unipolar induction
experiments. A magnet may turn about its axis; a
current passes first through a fixed wire, enters the magnet by
the pole N, for example, passes through half the magnet, emerges
by a sliding contact and reenters the fixed wire.
The magnet then begins to rotate continuously without being
able ever to attain equilibrium; this is Faraday's experiment.
How is it possible? If it were a question of two circuits of
invariable form, the one C fixed, the other C´ movable about an
axis, this latter could never take on continuous rotation; in fact
there is an electrodynamic potential; there must therefore
be necessarily a position of equilibrium when this potential is a
maximum.
Continuous rotations are therefore possible only when the circuit
C´ is composed of two parts: one fixed, the other movable
about an axis, as is the case in Faraday's experiment. Here
again it is convenient to draw a distinction. The passage from
the fixed to the movable part, or inversely, may take place either
by simple contact (the same point of the movable part remaining
constantly in contact with the same point of the fixed part), or by
a sliding contact (the same point of the movable part coming
successively in contact with diverse points of the fixed part).
It is only in the second case that there can be continuous rotation.
This is what then happens: The system tends to take a
position of equilibrium; but, when at the point of reaching that
position, the sliding contact puts the movable part in communication
with a new point of the fixed part; it changes the connections,
it changes therefore the conditions of equilibrium, so
that the position of equilibrium fleeing, so to say, before the
system which seeks to attain it, rotation may take place indefinitely.
Ampère assumes that the action of the circuit on the movable
part of C´ is the same as if the fixed part of C´ did not exist, and
therefore as if the current passing through the movable part
were open.
He concludes therefore that the action of a closed on an open
current, or inversely that of an open current on a closed current,
may give rise to a continuous rotation.
But this conclusion depends on the hypothesis I have enunciated
and which, as I said above, is not admitted by Helmholtz.
4. Mutual Action of Two Open Currents.—In what concerns
the mutual actions of two open currents, and in particular that
of two elements of current, all experiment breaks down. Ampère
has recourse to hypothesis. He supposes:
1º That the mutual action of two elements reduces to a force
acting along their join;
2º That the action of two closed currents is the resultant of
the mutual actions of their diverse elements, which are besides
the same as if these elements were isolated.
What is remarkable is that here again Ampère makes these
hypotheses unconsciously.
However that may be, these two hypotheses, together with the
experiments on closed currents, suffice to determine completely
the law of the mutual action of two elements. But then most
of the simple laws we have met in the case of closed currents are
no longer true.
In the first place, there is no electrodynamic potential; nor was
there any, as we have seen, in the case of a closed current acting
on an open current.
Next there is, properly speaking, no magnetic force.
And, in fact, we have given above three different definitions
of this force:
1º By the action on a magnetic pole;
2º By the director couple which orientates the magnetic
needle;
3º By the action on an element of current.
But in the case which now occupies us, not only these three
definitions are no longer in harmony, but each has lost its meaning,
and in fact:
1º A magnetic pole is no longer acted upon simply by a single
force applied to this pole. We have seen in fact that the force
due to the action of an element of current on a pole is not applied
to the pole, but to the element; it may moreover be replaced by
a force applied to the pole and by a couple;
2º The couple which acts on the magnetic needle is no longer
a simple director couple, for its moment with respect to the axis
of the needle is not null. It breaks up into a director couple,
properly so called, and a supplementary couple which tends to
produce the continuous rotation of which we have above spoken;
3º Finally the force acting on an element of current is not
normal to this element.
In other words, the unity of the magnetic force has disappeared.
Let us see in what this unity consists. Two systems which
exercise the same action on a magnetic pole will exert also the
same action on an indefinitely small magnetic needle, or on an
element of current placed at the same point of space as this pole.
Well, this is true if these two systems contain only closed
currents; this would no longer be true if these two systems contained
open currents.
It suffices to remark, for instance, that, if a magnetic pole is
placed at A and an element at B, the direction of the element
being along the prolongation of the sect AB, this element which
will exercise no action on this pole will, on the other hand, exercise
an action either on a magnetic needle placed at the point A,
or on an element of current placed at the point A.
5. Induction.—We know that the discovery of electrodynamic
induction soon followed the immortal work of Ampère.
As long as it is only a question of closed currents there is no
difficulty, and Helmholtz has even remarked that the principle of
the conservation of energy is sufficient for deducing the laws
of induction from the electrodynamic laws of Ampère. But
always on one condition, as Bertrand has well shown; that we
make besides a certain number of hypotheses.
The same principle again permits this deduction in the case of
open currents, although of course we can not submit the result
to the test of experiment, since we can not produce such currents.
If we try to apply this mode of analysis to Ampère's theory
of open currents, we reach results calculated to surprise us.
In the first place, induction can not be deduced from the
variation of the magnetic field by the formula well known to
savants and practicians, and, in fact, as we have said, properly
speaking there is no longer a magnetic field.
But, further, if a circuit C is subjected to the induction of a
variable voltaic system S, if this system S be displaced and deformed
in any way whatever, so that the intensity of the currents
of this system varies according to any law whatever, but that
after these variations the system finally returns to its initial situation,
it seems natural to suppose that the mean electromotive
force induced in the circuit C is null.
This is true if the circuit C is closed and if the system S contains
only closed currents. This would no longer be true, if one
accepts the theory of Ampère, if there were open currents. So
that not only induction will no longer be the variation of the
flow of magnetic force, in any of the usual senses of the word, but
it can not be represented by the variation of anything whatever.
II. Theory of Helmholtz.—I have dwelt upon the consequences
of Ampère's theory, and of his method of explaining
open currents.
It is difficult to overlook the paradoxical and artificial character
of the propositions to which we are thus led. One can not
help thinking 'that can not be so.'
We understand therefore why Helmholtz was led to seek something
else.
Helmholtz rejects Ampère's fundamental hypothesis, to wit,
that the mutual action of two elements of current reduces to a
force along their join. He assumes that an element of current is
not subjected to a single force, but to a force and a couple. It is
just this which gave rise to the celebrated polemic between Bertrand
and Helmholtz.
Helmholtz replaces Ampère's hypothesis by the following: two
elements always admit of an electrodynamic potential depending
solely on their position and orientation; and the work of the
forces that they exercise, one on the other, is equal to the variation
of this potential. Thus Helmholtz can no more do without
hypothesis than Ampère; but at least he does not make one without
explicitly announcing it.
In the case of closed currents, which are alone accessible to
experiment, the two theories agree.
In all other cases they differ.
In the first place, contrary to what Ampère supposed, the force
which seems to act on the movable portion of a closed current
is not the same as would act upon this movable portion if it
were isolated and constituted an open current.
Let us return to the circuit C´, of which we spoke above, and
which was formed of a movable wire αβ sliding on a fixed wire.
In the only experiment that can be made, the movable portion αβ
is not isolated, but is part of a closed circuit. When it passes
from AB to A´B´, the total electrodynamic potential varies for
two reasons:
1º It undergoes a first increase because the potential of A´B´
with respect to the circuit C is not the same as that of AB;
2º It takes a second increment because it must be increased
by the potentials of the elements AA´, BB´ with respect to C.
It is this double increment which represents the work of the
force to which the portion AB seems subjected.
If, on the contrary, αβ were isolated, the potential would
undergo only the first increase, and this first increment alone
would measure the work of the force which acts on AB.
In the second place, there could be no continuous rotation
without sliding contact, and, in fact, that, as we have seen à
propos of closed currents, is an immediate consequence of the
existence of an electrodynamic potential.
In Faraday's experiment, if the magnet is fixed and if the
part of the current exterior to the magnet runs along a movable
wire, that movable part may undergo a continuous rotation.
But this does not mean to say that if the contacts of the wire
with the magnet were suppressed, and an open current were to
run along the wire, the wire would still take a movement of continuous
rotation.
I have just said in fact that an isolated element is not acted
upon in the same way as a movable element making part of a
closed circuit.
Another difference: The action of a closed solenoid on a
closed current is null according to experiment and according to
the two theories. Its action on an open current would be null
according to Ampère; it would not be null according to Helmholtz.
From this follows an important consequence. We have
given above three definitions of magnetic force. The third has
no meaning here since an element of current is no longer acted
upon by a single force. No more has the first any meaning.
What, in fact, is a magnetic pole? It is the extremity of an
indefinite linear magnet. This magnet may be replaced by an
indefinite solenoid. For the definition of magnetic force to have
any meaning, it would be necessary that the action exercised by
an open current on an indefinite solenoid should depend only on
the position of the extremity of this solenoid, that is to say, that
the action on a closed solenoid should be null. Now we have
just seen that such is not the case.
On the other hand, nothing prevents our adopting the second
definition, which is founded on the measurement of the director
couple which tends to orientate the magnetic needle.
But if it is adopted, neither the effects of induction nor the
electrodynamic effects will depend solely on the distribution of
the lines of force in this magnetic field.
III. Difficulties Raised by These Theories.—The theory
of Helmholtz is in advance of that of Ampère; it is necessary,
however, that all the difficulties should be smoothed away. In
the one as in the other, the phrase 'magnetic field' has no meaning,
or, if we give it one, by a more or less artificial convention,
the ordinary laws so familiar to all electricians no longer apply;
thus the electromotive force induced in a wire is no longer
measured by the number of lines of force met by this wire.
And our repugnance does not come alone from the difficulty
of renouncing inveterate habits of language and of thought.
There is something more. If we do not believe in action at a distance,
electrodynamic phenomena must be explained by a modification
of the medium. It is precisely this modification that we
call 'magnetic field.' And then the electrodynamic effects must
depend only on this field.
All these difficulties arise from the hypothesis of open currents.
IV. Maxwell's Theory.—Such were the difficulties raised
by the dominant theories when Maxwell appeared, who with a
stroke of the pen made them all vanish. To his mind, in fact,
all currents are closed currents. Maxwell assumes that if in
a dielectric the electric field happens to vary, this dielectric
becomes the seat of a particular phenomenon, acting on the
galvanometer like a current, and which he calls current of displacement.
If then two conductors bearing contrary charges are put in
communication by a wire, in this wire during the discharge there
is an open current of conduction; but there are produced at the
same time in the surrounding dielectric, currents of displacement
which close this current of conduction.
We know that Maxwell's theory leads to the explanation of
optical phenomena, which would be due to extremely rapid electrical
oscillations.
At that epoch such a conception was only a bold hypothesis,
which could be supported by no experiment.
At the end of twenty years, Maxwell's ideas received the confirmation
of experiment. Hertz succeeded in producing systems
of electric oscillations which reproduce all the properties
of light, and only differ from it by the length of their wave; that
is to say as violet differs from red. In some measure he made
the synthesis of light.
It might be said that Hertz has not demonstrated directly
Maxwell's fundamental idea, the action of the current of displacement
on the galvanometer. This is true in a sense. What
he has shown in sum is that electromagnetic induction is not
propagated instantaneously as was supposed; but with the speed
of light.
But to suppose there is no current of displacement, and induction
is propagated with the speed of light; or to suppose that the
currents of displacement produce effects of induction, and that
the induction is propagated instantaneously, comes to the same
thing.
This can not be seen at the first glance, but it is proved by an
analysis of which I must not think of giving even a summary
here.
V. Rowland's Experiment.—But as I have said above, there
are two kinds of open conduction currents. There are first the
currents of discharge of a condenser or of any conductor whatever.
There are also the cases in which electric discharges describe
a closed contour, being displaced by conduction in one part of
the circuit and by convection in the other part.
For open currents of the first sort, the question might be considered
as solved; they were closed by the currents of displacement.
For open currents of the second sort, the solution appeared
still more simple. It seemed that if the current were closed, it
could only be by the current of convection itself. For that it
sufficed to assume that a 'convection current,' that is to say a
charged conductor in motion, could act on the galvanometer.
But experimental confirmation was lacking. It appeared difficult
in fact to obtain a sufficient intensity even by augmenting as
much as possible the charge and the velocity of the conductors.
It was Rowland, an extremely skillful experimenter, who first triumphed
over these difficulties. A disc received a strong electrostatic
charge and a very great speed of rotation. An astatic
magnetic system placed beside the disc underwent deviations.
The experiment was made twice by Rowland, once in Berlin,
once in Baltimore. It was afterwards repeated by Himstedt.
These physicists even announced that they had succeeded in
making quantitative measurements.
In fact, for twenty years Rowland's law was admitted without
objection by all physicists. Besides everything seemed to confirm
it. The spark certainly does produce a magnetic effect. Now
does it not seem probable that the discharge by spark is due to
particles taken from one of the electrodes and transferred to the
other electrode with their charge? Is not the very spectrum of
the spark, in which we recognize the lines of the metal of the
electrode, a proof of it? The spark would then be a veritable
current of convection.
On the other hand, it is also admitted that in an electrolyte
the electricity is carried by the ions in motion. The current in
an electrolyte would therefore be also a current of convection;
now, it acts on the magnetic needle.
The same for cathode rays. Crookes attributed these rays
to a very subtile matter charged with electricity and moving
with a very great velocity. He regarded them, in other
words, as currents of convection. Now these cathode rays are
deviated by the magnet. In virtue of the principle of action and
reaction, they should in turn deviate the magnetic needle. It is
true that Hertz believed he had demonstrated that the cathode
rays do not carry electricity, and that they do not act on the
magnetic needle. But Hertz was mistaken. First of all, Perrin
succeeded in collecting the electricity carried by these rays, electricity
of which Hertz denied the existence; the German scientist
appears to have been deceived by effects due to the action of
X-rays, which were not yet discovered. Afterwards, and quite
recently, the action of the cathode rays on the magnetic needle
has been put in evidence.
Thus all these phenomena regarded as currents of convection,
sparks, electrolytic currents, cathode rays, act in the same manner
on the galvanometer and in conformity with Rowland's law.
VI. Theory of Lorentz.—We soon went farther. According
to the theory of Lorentz, currents of conduction themselves
would be true currents of convection. Electricity would remain
inseparably connected with certain material particles called electrons.
The circulation of these electrons through bodies would
produce voltaic currents. And what would distinguish conductors
from insulators would be that the one could be traversed
by these electrons while the others would arrest their movements.
The theory of Lorentz is very attractive. It gives a very
simple explanation of certain phenomena which the earlier theories,
even Maxwell's in its primitive form, could not explain in a
satisfactory way; for example, the aberration of light, the partial
carrying away of luminous waves, magnetic polarization and
the Zeeman effect.
Some objections still remained. The phenomena of an electric
system seemed to depend on the absolute velocity of translation
of the center of gravity of this system, which is contrary to
the idea we have of the relativity of space. Supported by M.
Crémieu, M. Lippmann has presented this objection in a striking
form. Imagine two charged conductors with the same velocity
of translation; they are relatively at rest. However, each of
them being equivalent to a current of convection, they ought to
attract one another, and by measuring this attraction we could
measure their absolute velocity.
"No!" replied the partisans of Lorentz. "What we could
measure in that way is not their absolute velocity, but their relative
velocity with respect to the ether, so that the principle of
relativity is safe."
Whatever there may be in these latter objections, the edifice of
electrodynamics, at least in its broad lines, seemed definitively
constructed. Everything was presented under the most satisfactory
aspect. The theories of Ampère and of Helmholtz, made
for open currents which no longer existed, seemed to have no
longer anything but a purely historic interest, and the inextricable
complications to which these theories led were almost
forgotten.
This quiescence has been recently disturbed by the experiments
of M. Crémieu, which for a moment seemed to contradict
the result previously obtained by Rowland.
But fresh researches have not confirmed them, and the theory
of Lorentz has victoriously stood the test.
The history of these variations will be none the less instructive;
it will teach us to what pitfalls the scientist is exposed, and how
he may hope to escape them.
1. Does the Scientist create Science?—Professor Rados of
Budapest in his report to the Hungarian Academy of Science on
the award to Poincaré of the Bolyai prize of ten thousand
crowns, speaking of him as unquestionably the most powerful investigator
in the domain of mathematics and mathematical
physics, characterized him as the intuitive genius drawing the inspiration
for his wide-reaching researches from the exhaustless
fountain of geometric and physical intuition, yet working this
inspiration out in detail with marvelous logical keenness. With
his brilliant creative genius was combined the capacity for sharp
and successful generalization, pushing far out the boundaries of
thought in the most widely different domains, so that his works
must be ranked with the greatest mathematical achievements of
all time. "Finally," says Rados, "permit me to make especial
mention of his intensely interesting book, 'The Value of Science,'
in which he in a way has laid down the scientist's creed." Now
what is this creed?
Sense may act as stimulus, as suggestive, yet not to awaken a
dormant depiction, or to educe the conception of an archetypal
form, but rather to strike the hour for creation, to summon to
work a sculptor capable of smoothing a Venus of Milo out of the
formless clay. Knowledge is not a gift of bare experience, nor
even made solely out of experience. The creative activity of
mind is in mathematics particularly clear. The axioms of geometry
are conventions, disguised definitions or unprovable hypotheses
precreated by auto-active animal and human minds.
Bertrand Russell says of projective geometry: "It takes nothing
from experience, and has, like arithmetic, a creature of the pure
intellect for its object. It deals with an object whose properties
are logically deduced from its definition, not empirically discovered
from data." Then does the scientist create science?
This is a question Poincaré here dissects with a master hand.
The physiologic-psychologic investigation of the space problem
must give the meaning of the words geometric fact, geometric
reality. Poincaré here subjects to the most successful analysis
ever made the tridimensionality of our space.
2. The Mind Dispelling Optical Illusions.—Actual perception
of spatial properties is accompanied by movements corresponding
to its character. In the case of optical illusions, with the so-called
false perceptions eye-movements are closely related. But
though the perceived object and its environment remain constant,
the sufficiently powerful mind can, as we say, dispel these illusions,
the perception itself being creatively changed. Photo-graphs
taken at intervals during the presence of these optical
illusions, during the change, perhaps gradual and unconscious,
in the perception, and after these illusions have, as the phrase is,
finally disappeared, show quite clearly that changes in eye-movements
corresponding to those internally created in perception
itself successively occur. What is called accuracy of movement
is created by what is called correctness of perception. The
higher creation in the perception is the determining cause of an
improvement, a precision in the motion. Thus we see correct perception
in the individual helping to make that cerebral organization
and accurate motor adjustment on which its possibility and
permanence seem in so far to depend. So-called correct perception
is connected with a long-continued process of perceptual
education motived and initiated from within. How this may
take place is here illustrated at length by our author.
3. Euclid not Necessary.—Geometry is a construction of the
intellect, in application not certain but convenient. As Schiller
says, when we see these facts as clearly as the development of
metageometry has compelled us to see them, we must surely confess
that the Kantian account of space is hopelessly and demonstrably
antiquated. As Royce says in 'Kant's Doctrine of the
Basis of Mathematics,' "That very use of intuition which Kant
regarded as geometrically ideal, the modern geometer regards
as scientifically defective, because surreptitious. No mathematical
exactness without explicit proof from assumed principles—such
is the motto of the modern geometer. But suppose the
reasoning of Euclid purified of this comparatively surreptitious
appeal to intuition. Suppose that the principles of geometry are
made quite explicit at the outset of the treatise, as Pieri and
Hilbert or Professor Halsted or Dr. Veblen makes his principles
explicit in his recent treatment of geometry. Then, indeed, geometry
becomes for the modern mathematician a purely rational
science. But very few students of the logic of mathematics at the
present time can see any warrant in the analysis of geometrical
truth for regarding just the Euclidean system of principles as
possessing any discoverable necessity." Yet the environmental
and perhaps hereditary premiums on Euclid still make even the
scientist think Euclid most convenient.
4. Without Hypotheses, no Science.—Nobody ever observed an
equidistantial, but also nobody ever observed a straight line.
Emerson's Uriel
"Gave his sentiment divine
Against the being of a line.
Line in Nature is not found."
Clearly not, being an eject from man's mind. What is called 'a
knowledge of facts' is usually merely a subjective realization that
the old hypotheses are still sufficiently elastic to serve in some
domain; that is, with a sufficiency of conscious or unconscious
omissions and doctorings and fudgings more or less wilful. In
the present book we see the very foundation rocks of science, the
conservation of energy and the indestructibility of matter, beating
against the bars of their cages, seemingly anxious to take
wing away into the empyrean, to chase the once divine parallel
postulate broken loose from Euclid and Kant.
5. What Outcome?—What now is the definite, the permanent
outcome? What new islets raise their fronded palms in air within
thought's musical domain? Over what age-gray barriers rise the
fragrant floods of this new spring-tide, redolent of the wolf-haunted
forest of Transylvania, of far Erdély's plunging river,
Maros the bitter, or broad mother Volga at Kazan? What victory
heralded the great rocket for which young Lobachevski, the
widow's son, was cast into prison? What severing of age-old
mental fetters symbolized young Bolyai's cutting-off with his
Damascus blade the spikes driven into his door-post, and strewing
over the sod the thirteen Austrian cavalry officers? This
book by the greatest mathematician of our time gives weightiest
and most charming answer.
George Bruce Halsted.
The search for truth should be the goal of our activities; it is
the sole end worthy of them. Doubtless we should first bend our
efforts to assuage human suffering, but why? Not to suffer is a
negative ideal more surely attained by the annihilation of the
world. If we wish more and more to free man from material
cares, it is that he may be able to employ the liberty obtained in
the study and contemplation of truth.
But sometimes truth frightens us. And in fact we know that it
is sometimes deceptive, that it is a phantom never showing itself
for a moment except to ceaselessly flee, that it must be pursued
further and ever further without ever being attained. Yet to
work one must stop, as some Greek, Aristotle or another, has said.
We also know how cruel the truth often is, and we wonder
whether illusion is not more consoling, yea, even more bracing,
for illusion it is which gives confidence. When it shall have
vanished, will hope remain and shall we have the courage to
achieve? Thus would not the horse harnessed to his treadmill
refuse to go, were his eyes not bandaged? And then to seek
truth it is necessary to be independent, wholly independent. If,
on the contrary, we wish to act, to be strong, we should be united.
This is why many of us fear truth; we consider it a cause of
weakness. Yet truth should not be feared, for it alone is beautiful.
When I speak here of truth, assuredly I refer first to scientific
truth; but I also mean moral truth, of which what we call justice
is only one aspect. It may seem that I am misusing words, that
I combine thus under the same name two things having nothing
in common; that scientific truth, which is demonstrated, can in no
way be likened to moral truth, which is felt. And yet I can not
separate them, and whosoever loves the one can not help loving
the other. To find the one, as well as to find the other, it is necessary
to free the soul completely from prejudice and from passion;
it is necessary to attain absolute sincerity. These two sorts of
truth when discovered give the same joy; each when perceived
beams with the same splendor, so that we must see it or close our
eyes. Lastly, both attract us and flee from us; they are never
fixed: when we think to have reached them, we find that we have
still to advance, and he who pursues them is condemned never to
know repose. It must be added that those who fear the one will
also fear the other; for they are the ones who in everything are
concerned above all with consequences. In a word, I liken the
two truths, because the same reasons make us love them and
because the same reasons make us fear them.
If we ought not to fear moral truth, still less should we dread
scientific truth. In the first place it can not conflict with ethics.
Ethics and science have their own domains, which touch but do
not interpenetrate. The one shows us to what goal we should
aspire, the other, given the goal, teaches us how to attain it. So
they can never conflict since they can never meet. There can no
more be immoral science than there can be scientific morals.
But if science is feared, it is above all because it can not give us
happiness. Of course it can not. We may even ask whether the
beast does not suffer less than man. But can we regret that
earthly paradise where man brute-like was really immortal in
knowing not that he must die? When we have tasted the apple,
no suffering can make us forget its savor. We always come back
to it. Could it be otherwise? As well ask if one who has seen
and is blind will not long for the light. Man, then, can not be
happy through science, but to-day he can much less be happy
without it.
But if truth be the sole aim worth pursuing, may we hope to
attain it? It may well be doubted. Readers of my little book
'Science and Hypothesis' already know what I think about the
question. The truth we are permitted to glimpse is not altogether
what most men call by that name. Does this mean that
our most legitimate, most imperative aspiration is at the same
time the most vain? Or can we, despite all, approach truth on
some side? This it is which must be investigated.
In the first place, what instrument have we at our disposal for
this conquest? Is not human intelligence, more specifically the
intelligence of the scientist, susceptible of infinite variation?
Volumes could be written without exhausting this subject; I, in
a few brief pages, have only touched it lightly. That the geometer's
mind is not like the physicist's or the naturalist's, all the
world would agree; but mathematicians themselves do not resemble
each other; some recognize only implacable logic, others
appeal to intuition and see in it the only source of discovery.
And this would be a reason for distrust. To minds so unlike can
the mathematical theorems themselves appear in the same light?
Truth which is not the same for all, is it truth? But looking
at things more closely, we see how these very different workers
collaborate in a common task which could not be achieved without
their cooperation. And that already reassures us.
Next must be examined the frames in which nature seems enclosed
and which are called time and space. In 'Science and
Hypothesis' I have already shown how relative their value is;
it is not nature which imposes them upon us, it is we who impose
them upon nature because we find them convenient. But I have
spoken of scarcely more than space, and particularly quantitative
space, so to say, that is of the mathematical relations whose
aggregate constitutes geometry. I should have shown that it is
the same with time as with space and still the same with 'qualitative
space'; in particular, I should have investigated why we
attribute three dimensions to space. I may be pardoned then for
taking up again these important questions.
Is mathematical analysis, then, whose principal object is the
study of these empty frames, only a vain play of the mind? It
can give to the physicist only a convenient language; is this not
a mediocre service, which, strictly speaking, could be done without;
and even is it not to be feared that this artificial language
may be a veil interposed between reality and the eye of the
physicist? Far from it; without this language most of the intimate
analogies of things would have remained forever unknown
to us; and we should forever have been ignorant of the internal
harmony of the world, which is, we shall see, the only true
objective reality.
The best expression of this harmony is law. Law is one of the
most recent conquests of the human mind; there still are people
who live in the presence of a perpetual miracle and are not
astonished at it. On the contrary, we it is who should be astonished
at nature's regularity. Men demand of their gods to prove
their existence by miracles; but the eternal marvel is that there
are not miracles without cease. The world is divine because it is
a harmony. If it were ruled by caprice, what could prove to us
it was not ruled by chance?
This conquest of law we owe to astronomy, and just this makes
the grandeur of the science rather than the material grandeur of
the objects it considers. It was altogether natural, then, that
celestial mechanics should be the first model of mathematical
physics; but since then this science has developed; it is still
developing, even rapidly developing. And it is already necessary
to modify in certain points the scheme from which I drew
two chapters of 'Science and Hypothesis.' In an address at the
St. Louis exposition, I sought to survey the road traveled; the
result of this investigation the reader shall see farther on.
The progress of science has seemed to imperil the best established
principles, those even which were regarded as fundamental.
Yet nothing shows they will not be saved; and if this comes about
only imperfectly, they will still subsist even though they are
modified. The advance of science is not comparable to the changes
of a city, where old edifices are pitilessly torn down to give place
to new, but to the continuous evolution of zoologic types which
develop ceaselessly and end by becoming unrecognizable to the
common sight, but where an expert eye finds always traces of the
prior work of the centuries past. One must not think then that
the old-fashioned theories have been sterile and vain.
Were we to stop there, we should find in these pages some
reasons for confidence in the value of science, but many more for
distrusting it; an impression of doubt would remain; it is needful
now to set things to rights.
Some people have exaggerated the rôle of convention in science;
they have even gone so far as to say that law, that scientific fact
itself, was created by the scientist. This is going much too far
in the direction of nominalism. No, scientific laws are not
artificial creations; we have no reason to regard them as accidental,
though it be impossible to prove they are not.
Does the harmony the human intelligence thinks it discovers
in nature exist outside of this intelligence? No, beyond doubt
a reality completely independent of the mind which conceives it,
sees or feels it, is an impossibility. A world as exterior as that,
even if it existed, would for us be forever inaccessible. But what
we call objective reality is, in the last analysis, what is common
to many thinking beings, and could be common to all; this common
part, we shall see, can only be the harmony expressed by
mathematical laws. It is this harmony then which is the sole
objective reality, the only truth we can attain; and when I add
that the universal harmony of the world is the source of all
beauty, it will be understood what price we should attach to the
slow and difficult progress which little by little enables us to know
it better.