FACTS ABOUT THE JAPANESE IN CALIFORNIA—POPULATION AND BIRTH RATE
A knowledge of the facts regarding the Japanese population in California
is important, because it has been a point of sharp dispute between those
who insist on exclusion and those who oppose it, the former arguing that
the Japanese are increasing at an amazing rate through immigration,
smuggling, and birth, threatening to overwhelm the white population in the
State, the latter contending that they are not multiplying in a way
menacing to the State of California. The fact that such a dispute prevails
in the matter of the number of Japanese suggests that it is, at least, one
of the crucial points on which the whole problem rests. This is true in
the sense that, if the Japanese in California were decreasing in number as
the American Indians are, it would be totally useless to waste energy in
an attempt to quicken the final extinction. If, on the other hand, they
were to multiply in a progressively higher rate so as to overwhelm the
white population, it would certainly be serious both for California and
for the United States.
Number of Japanese in California.
This being the case, it is but natural that the enemies of the Japanese
should exaggerate the number of Japanese living in California. The leaders
of the movement for excluding Japanese estimate their number as no less
than one hundred thousand. The report of the State Board of Control of
California, prepared for the specific purpose of emphasizing the gravity
of the Japanese problem in California, enumerated the population of
Japanese in that State at the end of December, 1919, as 87,279. This
number turned out to be 13,355 higher than the number reported by the
Foreign Office of Japan,[11] which was based on the Consular registrations
(including American-born offspring of the Japanese) and the count made by
the Japanese Association of America. Most fortunately, the preliminary
publication of a part of the United States Census for 1920 removed the
uncertainty arising from the discrepancy by stating the exact number of
the Japanese in California to be 70,196. The possible cause of the
over-estimation by the Board of Control is to be found in its method of
computation. Instead of counting the actual number of residents, it simply
added the number of net gain from immigration and the excess in birth over
death statistics to the returns of the census of 1910, overlooking the
fact that in the meantime a great number of Japanese were leaving
California for Japan as well as other States of the Union.
The present number of Japanese is a minor matter compared with its dynamic
tendency. The rate of increase of the Japanese population in California in
the past may be easily obtained by comparing the returns of the United
States Census.
The following table indicates the number and rate of decennial increase:
Number of Japanese in California According to the United States Census.
| Year. |
Number. |
Decennial Increase. |
Percentage of Decennial Increase. |
| 1880 |
86 |
..... |
..... |
| 1890 |
1,147 |
1,061 |
1,234 % |
| 1900 |
10,151 |
9,004 |
785 % |
| 1910 |
41,356 |
31,205 |
307.3% |
| 1920 |
70,196 |
28,840 |
69.7% |
We see from the above table that after half a century of Japanese
immigration to the United States, California’s net gain amounts to a
little over 70,000, the number having increased at an average rate of
14,025 per decade, or 1603 per annum. We also observe that the percentage
of decennial increase gradually decreased from 1234 per cent. to 69.7 per
cent.
It is useful to compare this development of the Japanese population with
that of California in general, because it gives an idea of the relative
importance of the Japanese increase. This is shown in the following table,
in which the decennial rates of increase between them are compared:
Comparison of Population Increase of California and of Japanese in California.
| Year. |
Number. |
Decennial Increase. |
Rate of Decennial Increase. |
Rate of Japanese Decennial Increase. |
Percentage of Japanese to the Total Population of California. |
| 1880 |
864,694 |
..... |
..... |
..... |
.0099% |
| 1890 |
1,213,398 |
348,704 |
40.3% |
1234 % |
.095% |
| 1900 |
1,485,053 |
271,655 |
22.3% |
785 % |
.68 % |
| 1910 |
2,377,549 |
892,496 |
60.0% |
307.3% |
1.73 % |
| 1920 |
3,426,861 |
1,049,312 |
44.1% |
69.7% |
2.04 % |
Thus we see that while the percentage of decennial increase of Japanese
has been fast decreasing since the census of 1890, descending from 1234
per cent. to 785 per cent. in the next census, and to 307.3 per cent. in
1910, and 69.7 per cent. in 1920, that of California is headed, on the
whole, towards an increase. We also notice that the percentage of the
Japanese population to the total population of California also shows a
tendency to slow growth, increasing only three tenths of one per cent.
during the last decade. As a general conclusion, therefore, we may say
that the rate of increase of Japanese in California is slowly declining
while that of the total population of California is steadily increasing.
In the next place, how does the status of the Japanese population in
California compare with that in the continental United States? In the
following table, we compare the rate of increase in California and the
United States, and enumerate the percentage of the number of Japanese in
California to the total number of Japanese in the United States:
Japanese Population in the United States and California.
| Census. |
Japanese in Continental United States. |
Decennial Increase of Japanese in Continental United States. |
Rate of Decennial Increase. |
Rate of Decennial Increase Japanese in California. |
Percentage of Japanese in California to entire Japanese population of United States. |
| 1880 |
148 |
..... |
..... |
..... |
58.1% |
| 1890 |
2,039 |
1,891 |
1,277.7% |
1234.0% |
56.2% |
| 1900 |
24,326 |
22,287 |
1,093.0% |
785.0% |
41.7% |
| 1910 |
72,157 |
47,831 |
196.6% |
307.3% |
57.3% |
| 1920 |
119,207 |
47,050 |
65.2% |
69.7% |
58.8% |
The table indicates that the percentage of Japanese in California to the
total number of Japanese in the United States is rather high, justifying
the complaint of the Governor of California that during ten years, between
1910 and 1920, “the Japanese population in California increased 25,592,
but in all of the other States of the United States it decreased 10,873.
Perhaps, in this last-named fact may be found the reason that makes
Oriental immigration a live subject of continued consideration in
California.”[12]
The truth of this statement, which in other words means that the cause of
anti-Japanese agitation in California is due to congestion in that one
State, becomes almost indisputable. It is doubly apparent when we consider
the reason why the Chinese no longer constitute the objects of exclusion
in California while the Japanese do. The Chinese have shown, ever since
the launching of the agitation against them in the early ’80’s, a wise
tendency to disperse into other States, thus avoiding conflict with the
Californians. The Japanese, on the other hand, appear to cling tenaciously
to California, and the more they are maltreated and slandered the more
steadfastly they remain in that State. This is apparently due largely to
the recognition of the desirability of California, even with its
handicaps, over other States, but it is also due to their helplessness to
extricate themselves from the situation in fear of a great financial loss
involved in the change.
The Report of the State Board of Control of California uses the fact of
the decreasing number of Chinese and the increasing number of Japanese in
California as evidence of the success of the Chinese Exclusion Act in
accomplishing its purpose, and of the failure of the “Gentlemen’s
Agreement” in restricting Japanese immigration.[13] But, in so doing, it
fails to take into consideration the very fact which it points out
elsewhere, which we have just quoted; namely, that the number of Japanese
has decreased in all of the other States combined while it has increased
in California. It also fails to take into account the fact that the number
of Chinese, contrary to the Japanese tendency, has shown a marked tendency
to grow in eastern and middle western States and to decrease in
California. Thus, for example, the number of Chinese in New England, the
Middle Atlantic, and Eastern and North Central States increased from 401,
1227, and 390 respectively in 1880 to 3499, 8189, and 3415, respectively,
in 1910, while it decreased in the Pacific division from 87,828 to 46,320
in the corresponding period.[14]
The foregoing examination establishes the fact that much of the
anti-Japanese agitation in California is due to the congestion of Japanese
in that one State, as pointed out by the authorities of California, and as
confirmed by the extinction of anti-Chinese sentiment in California,
consequent upon the exodus of large numbers of Chinese from that State.
We have seen that the Japanese population in California increased from 86
in 1880 to 70,196 in 1920 at the annual rate of 1403. We shall now see how
each of the three factors—lawful entrance of Japanese into the United
States, smuggling, and birth—has contributed to this increase.
Immigration.
Without question, the coming of the Japanese who are legally permitted to
enter the United States has been the largest factor contributing to their
increase in California. Of the total Japanese entering the continental
United States since its beginning up to the end of 1920, estimated at
180,000,[15] California claims to have received about two thirds,[16] or
approximately 125,000. Since California’s present Japanese population is
70,196, of which about 25,000[17] are American-born children, it means
that out of the total number of Japanese immigrants (125,000) who entered
California, only 45,196 survive now in that State, the rest having either
migrated to other States, or died out, or returned home.
One reason why the Japanese immigration is viewed with so much
apprehension is because the facts of the situation are not rightly
understood. The number of Japanese coming to the United States has
decidedly increased in recent years, especially since the war, the annual
number reaching the ten thousand mark. This would certainly be alarming
were it not for the correspondingly large number of Japanese who returned
every year. The following table shows the percentage of those who returned
out of the total arrivals:
| Year. |
Arrivals. |
Returned. |
Percentage of Returned Against Total Arrivals. |
| 1916 |
9,100 |
6,922 |
76% |
| 1917 |
9,159 |
6,581 |
72% |
| 1918 |
11,143 |
7,696 |
69% |
| 1919 |
11,404 |
8,328 |
73% |
| 1920 |
12,868 |
11,662 |
90% |
The growing number of Japanese coming into America and the increasing high
rate of their return, as shown in the above table, clearly indicate the
fact that the character of the Japanese now entering the United States has
decidedly changed. The explanation of the high rate of Japanese entrance
is to be sought in the growing business, diplomatic, intellectual, and
other relations between America and Japan which the recent war brought
about. In the field of business, the number of branch offices of Japanese
firms employing Japanese clerks and managers rapidly increased in the
large cities of the United States. Students who formerly went to Europe
for study now flock to America and enter the large universities of this
country. Many of the newly rich whom the unique opportunity of the World
War has created, have taken it into their heads to see the post-war
changes in America and Europe. But these Japanese visitors are not
immigrants; they are not coolies; they do not come to America to work and
settle. They will give America no trouble, for they stay in this country
only a brief period of time. They are America’s guests, as it were, and
they should not be treated as immigrants. The rough handling of these
visitors, as sometimes happens in the Western States, gives them a bad
impression of the American people at large.
That most of the Japanese now coming to this country are temporary
visitors is shown by the following table which distinguishes non-laborers
from laborers:
| Year. |
Total. |
Laborers. |
Non-Laborers. |
Percentage of Non-Laborers Against All. |
| 1916 |
9,100 |
2,956 |
6,144 |
67.5% |
| 1917 |
9,159 |
2,838 |
6,321 |
69 % |
| 1918 |
11,143 |
2,604 |
8,539 |
77 % |
“Gentlemen’s Agreement.”
It is useful to remember the above fact when discussing the workings of
the so-called “Gentlemen’s Agreement.” It is often alleged that Japan has
not been observing the agreement in good faith. Thus Governor Stephens
states:
There can be no doubt that it was the intent of our Government by this
agreement (the “Gentlemen’s Agreement”) to prevent the further
immigration of Japanese laborers. Unfortunately, however, the
hoped-for results have not been attained. Without imputing to the
Japanese Government any direct knowledge on the subject, the
statistics clearly show a decided increase in Japanese population
since the execution of the so-called “Gentlemen’s Agreement.” Skillful
evasions have been resorted to in various manners.
Such an accusation appears plausible when it is examined solely in the
light of the high number of annual Japanese arrivals. The accusation,
however, falls to the ground when we consider two other facts already
pointed out; namely, the correspondingly high and ascending rate of
departures, and the increasingly high percentage of non-immigrants against
immigrants.
It is provided in the “Gentlemen’s Agreement” that “the Japanese
Government shall issue passports to the continental United States only to
such of its subjects as are non-laborers, or are laborers who in coming to
the continent seek to resume a formerly-acquired domicile, to join a
parent, wife, or children residing here, or to assume active control of an
already possessed interest in a farming enterprise in this country.”
Accordingly, the classes of laborers entitled to receive passports have
come to be designated “former residents,” “parents, wives, or children of
residents,” and “settled agriculturists.” Of these, the last item, the
“settled agriculturists,” has practically no significance, because under
that class only four entered America since the conclusion of the
agreement. According to the agreement, then, only two classes of
immigrants, former residents and the families of residents, are admitted.
This agreement leaves the question of the admittance of non-laborers
entirely untouched, permitting the Japanese Government to decide as to
who may be classed laborers and who non-laborers. The lack of concrete
understanding between Japan and the United States in this respect is a
grave defect in the agreement. True, the executive orders issued in
connection with the “Gentlemen’s Agreement” provide a definition of term
“laborer,” and state:
For practical administrative purposes, the term “laborer, skilled and
unskilled,” within the meaning of the executive order of February 24,
1913, shall be taken to refer primarily to persons whose work is
essentially physical, or, at least, manual, as farm laborers, street
laborers, factory hands, contractors’ men, stablemen, freight
handlers, stevedores, miners, and the like, and to persons whose work
is less physical, but still manual, and who may be highly skilled as
carpenters, stone masons, tile setters, painters, blacksmiths,
mechanics, tailors, printers, and the like; but shall not be taken to
refer to persons whose work is neither distinctively manual nor
mechanical but rather professional, artistic, mercantile, or
clerical—as pharmacists, draftsmen, photographers, designers,
salesmen, bookkeepers, stenographers, copyists, and the like.[19]
The weakness of the provision, however, is in the difficulty it gives rise
to in practical application and in the liability of wrong construction to
be placed by the American public in the administration of the “Gentlemen’s
Agreement.” The difficulty lies not at all in the lack of mutual
understanding between the American and the Japanese Governments in respect
to this question. The modus operandi arrived at between these two
Governments has worked satisfactorily. But because of the lack of a
specified definition of “non-immigrants” and “immigrants,” the distinction
to be made between them, and, consequently, the granting of passports, as
already stated, is left in a large measure to the discretion of the
authorities of the Foreign Office of the Japanese Government.
The foregoing defect and the confusion on the part of the American people
suggest that the adoption of a specific definition of “immigrants” and
“non-immigrants”—in other words, laborers and non-laborers—on the basis
of whether a person is coming to America for work and settlement or for a
temporary visit, seems quite essential.
The Japanese method of distinguishing non-immigrants from immigrants,
however, has not been altogether irrational or arbitrary. The established
custom is that the Government issues two kinds of passports, one with a
lavender color design on the front page with the word “non-immigrant”
stamped on it, and the other with a green color design with the word
“immigrant” printed on the front page. The former is given to those who
desire to go to America for business, educational, or traveling purposes,
expecting to return home after a brief stay, and who have strong financial
assurance. The latter passports, namely, the immigrant’s, are given to
those who are entitled to enter America, according to the already
specified provisions of the “Gentlemen’s Agreement,” viz. “former
residents,” “parents, wives, or children of residents,” and “settled
agriculturists.” The passports, however, are not granted even to these
classes unless they file a petition to the Government with a certificate
from a Japanese Consulate in America certifying the breadwinner in America
to be an honest man, with a clean record, who is capable of comfortably
supporting a family. In this way, although without a definite standard of
regulation, the Japanese Government faithfully adheres to the provisions
of the agreement, even to the point of being charged with an extreme
rigidity. The following table given in the Report of the
Commissioner-General of Immigration shows in detail how the agreement has
been operating:
Japanese Laborers Admitted to Continental United States 1910 to 1919.
According to Annual Report of Commissioner-General of Immigration.
Fiscal Year Ending June. |
In possession of proper passports. Entitled to passports under “Gentlemen’s Agreement.” |
|
Former Residents. |
Parents, Wives, and Children of Residents. |
Settled Agriculturists. |
Not Entitled to Passports. |
Without Proper Passports. |
Total. |
| 1910 |
245 |
373 |
1 |
47 |
39 |
705 |
| 1911 |
351 |
268 |
.. |
88 |
25 |
732 |
| 1912 |
602 |
224 |
.. |
60 |
27 |
913 |
| 1913 |
1,175 |
178 |
.. |
41 |
13 |
1,407 |
| 1914 |
1,514 |
119 |
.. |
84 |
51 |
1,768 |
| 1915 |
1,545 |
585 |
1 |
54 |
29 |
2,214 |
| 1916 |
1,695 |
1,199 |
2 |
39 |
78 |
3,013 |
| 1917 |
1,647 |
1,115 |
.. |
36 |
87 |
2,885 |
| 1918 |
1,774 |
507 |
.. |
88 |
235 |
2,604 |
| 1919 |
1,265 |
422 |
.. |
48 |
241 |
1,976 |
| Total |
11,813 |
4,990 |
4 |
585 |
825 |
18,217 |
The table indicates that out of the total immigration of 18,217 from 1909
to 1920, 11,813 of this number were people who temporarily visited Japan;
4990 belonged to the families of residents; 4 were “settled
agriculturists,” and 585 were persons not entitled, for reasons
unexplained, to passports. It also shows that 825 were persons without
proper passports. The latter category included immigrants bound for
Canada, Mexico, and South America who were sidetracked on the way, those
who lost their passports, as well as deserting seamen and smugglers. For
these cases of illicit endeavors to enter America, the Japanese Government
can hardly be held responsible. It would be absurd to put forth the
negligible number of 585 cases, that are recorded during the period of ten
years as persons who are not entitled to passports, as an evasion of the
“Gentlemen’s Agreement” on the part of the Tokyo Government. It is one
thing to point out the defects of the agreement, but it is an entirely
different matter to charge bad faith in its execution.
By way of summary, then, it may be stated that ever since the “Gentlemen’s
Agreement” was put into effect in 1907, the number of immigrants has
gradually decreased, those admitted having been mostly former residents,
although the total number of Japanese coming to the United States has
increased, due to the growing number of tourists and business men. The
agreement, as far as its execution is concerned, has been carried out with
the utmost scruple, but it is defective in that it does not clearly
distinguish immigrants from non-immigrants, and this leads to confounding
visitors with immigrants, and hence to the unfounded claim that it is
being ignored, evaded. Judging from the sentiment prevailing in
California, and in other Western States, against the Japanese, it is
desirable that the agreement be so amended as to forbid the advent of all
Japanese, except well-defined non-immigrants and former residents
temporarily visiting Japan. This will prevent the further increase through
immigration of Japanese settlers in California or elsewhere in the United
States. This step is deemed advisable, not that a handful of immigrants as
such is serious, but that the main question at issue—the treatment of
Japanese already in America—becomes thereby liberated from further
complication. It will go far to reduce the fear of Californians, and
thereby alleviate the difficulty of the main issue.
Smuggling.
There is no room for doubt that smuggling is responsible for a part of the
Japanese population in California. From the nature of the case, it is,
however, impossible to estimate the number of Japanese who have entered
the United States through this illegal method. During the visit to
California last summer, of the House sub-Committee on Immigration and
Naturalization for the investigation of Japanese conditions, a rumor was
circulated and published in the principal papers of the country to the
effect that the Committee had discovered amazing facts as to the
systematic smuggling of Japanese into this country through Guaymas. Later,
it was made clear that the rumor owed its source to the machinations of
certain anti-Japanese agitators who willfully concocted the canard. While
it is possible that from the Mexican and Canadian borders a few scores of
Japanese may be smuggled in every year, it is absurd to imagine that any
wholesale smuggling is being practiced through the connivance of Japanese
officials and under the noses of competent officers who patrol the borders
and coasts.
It may also be remembered that Japan and Canada have an agreement
restricting the number of Japanese entering Canada. This renders the
northern borders of the United States comparatively free from the danger
of smuggling. Except through desertion of seamen, which numbered 315 cases
during the past ten years, it is almost impossible to enter secretly by
way of the Pacific Coast. The only danger zone is the Mexican border. But
here again there are good reasons for believing that smuggling from Mexico
cannot be practiced on a large scale. In the first place, the number of
Japanese in Mexico amounts only to 1169,[20] and no passports have been
granted by the Japanese Government since 1908 to laborers who wish to go
to Mexico.[21] In the second place, the American Government would take
care to see that its border-patrol is efficient enough to arrest
smugglers. The Mikado’s Government, too, has been sincere in cooperating
with the American authorities to prevent the evasion of the law.
Birth Rate.
The cardinal question relating to the Japanese population in California is
the question of birth rate. Immigration can be restricted, smuggling may
be completely prevented, but the fact of the high birth rate is something
which cannot be very easily combated without infringing upon traditionally
sacred principles and personal freedom. It is quite true that the high
birth rate among the Japanese in California would not have been a serious
matter if the nationalism of America were as broad as that of Ancient
Rome, or if the Japanese were a race which will readily and speedily lose
its identity in the great American melting pot. But the fact remains that
the United States of America is not merely a mixture of different races
and colors; she is a solid, unified, composite country, although she draws
race material from all over the world. Nor are the Japanese a race likely
to amalgamate completely with Americans in a few generations. Thus the
question of Japanese birth rate in America becomes a vital matter,
touching the fundamental questions of national and racial unity in the
United States.
With the importance of the question clearly kept in mind, we shall see
what are the facts as to births among the Japanese in California. The
following table, prepared from the reports of the California State Board
of Health, Bureau of Vital Statistics, shows the number of annual births
of Japanese from 1906 to 1919, and its percentage of the total number of
births in California:
Number of Births.
| Year. |
Total Births in California. |
Japanese Births in California. |
Japanese Births— Percentage of Total. |
| 1906 |
..... |
134 |
..... |
| 1907 |
..... |
221 |
..... |
| 1908 |
..... |
455 |
..... |
| 1909 |
..... |
682 |
..... |
| 1910 |
32,138 |
719 |
2.24% |
| 1911 |
34,828 |
995 |
2.86% |
| 1912 |
39,330 |
1,407 |
3.73% |
| 1913 |
43,852 |
2,215 |
5.05% |
| 1914 |
46,012 |
2,874 |
6.25% |
| 1915 |
48,075 |
3,342 |
6.95% |
| 1916 |
50,638 |
3,721 |
7.35% |
| 1917 |
52,230 |
4,108 |
7.87% |
| 1918 |
55,922 |
4,218 |
7.54% |
| 1919 |
56,527 |
4,378 |
7.75% |
| Totals |
459,552 |
29,469 |
|
The table indicates in the first place that the birth rate of California
as a whole is steadily growing, and in the second place that the birth
rate of the Japanese was very low until 1906 or 1907, but since then it
has been rapidly growing. The relative percentage of Japanese births in
the total births of California, however, indicates the tendency to
diminish, having reached the highest mark in 1917, when it was 7.87 per
cent., but decreasing slightly in the last few years.
The exceedingly high birth rate of the Japanese in California becomes
clearer when considered in terms of the rate of birth per thousand of
population. In the year 1919, the number of births in California was 1.79
per thousand population. In Japan, where the birth rate is high, it was
2.53 during the past decade. The birth rate of Japanese in California is
more than three times as high as that for the total of California, and
more than double that in Japan.
There are several reasons for this abnormally high birth rate among the
Japanese in California. In the first place, a large portion of these
Japanese are in the prime of life, and moreover they are selected groups
of vigorous and healthy individuals. Commenting on the age distribution of
Japanese in this country, the report of the Bureau of Census states[22]:
The most noteworthy fact about the age distribution of the Japanese is
their remarkable concentration on the age groups 25 to 44, nearly
two-thirds of the Japanese being in this period of life. Only 4.5 per
cent. of the Japanese are over 45 years of age, as compared with 44.7
per cent. of the Chinese. The explanation is, doubtless, to be found
in the fact that the Japanese represent more recent immigration than
the Chinese.
The truth of this statement was borne out by the recent investigation
conducted by the Japanese Association of San Francisco, which obtained the
following result in thirty-six northern counties of California:
Age Distribution of Japanese in Middle and Northern California, 1920.
| Age. |
Male. |
Female. |
Total. |
Percentage of Age Group. |
| Under 7 |
4,078 |
3,786 |
7,864 |
18.% |
| 8 to 16 |
2,035 |
1,663 |
3,698 |
8.% |
| 17 to 40 |
17,037 |
8,535 |
25,572 |
59.% |
| Above 40 |
5,683 |
805 |
6,488 |
15.% |
| Total |
28,833 |
14,789 |
43,622 |
100. |
Thus, out of the total number of 43,622 investigated, 25,572 or nearly 59
per cent. are between the ages of seventeen to forty, only 5 per cent. of
females being those who passed the age of fertility.
Another reason for the high birth rate of the Japanese in California is
the high percentage of married people. The rate of married people among
the Japanese in California suddenly rose since some ten years ago when a
great number (between 400 and 900 per annum) of wives began to come in
under the popular name, picture brides. The ratio maintained between
male and female among the Japanese in California was one to six ten years
ago, but at present, it is one to two.[23] Since it is estimated that
there are 16,195 Japanese wives in California,[24] it is obvious that
there are double that number, or 32,390 married Japanese, in California,
which means that 46 per cent. of the total population are married. This is
apparently a high rate, since it is 17 per cent. in Japan, 36 per cent. in
Great Britain, 37 per cent. in Italy. Although exact data is lacking,
judging from the fact that only less than a half of California’s white
population are of ages above twenty-one,[25] it may not be too far-fetched
to estimate the percentage of married people at 25 per cent. of the total
population.
From the foregoing considerations we can deduce this, that the Japanese
are mostly at the prime of life, and that the percentage of married people
is exceedingly high. Now, in comparing the birth rates of two groups such
as those of the Japanese and of the Californians in general, a mere
comparison of rates without taking into consideration the difference in
age distribution and marital conditions is not only useless, but it is
absolutely misleading. California has only 20 per cent. of people between
the ages of eighteen to forty-four,[26] while the Japanese group has 59
per cent.; California has about 25 per cent. or less of married
population, including those who have passed the fertile period; while the
Japanese community has 46 per cent. of married population, all of whom are
in the zenith of productivity. No wonder, then, that the Japanese in
California have three times as high a birth rate as that of California as
a whole.
There is another factor which accounts for the high birth rate of the
Japanese. It is the sudden rise of the standard of living. It is an
established principle of immigration that when immigrants settle in a new
country and attain a much higher standard of living than they were
accustomed to at home they tend to multiply very rapidly through high
birth rate. Among the European immigrants in this country, a birth rate of
fifty per thousand is not rare.[27] In the careful researches made in
Rhode Island concerning the fertility of the immigrant population,[28] it
was found that their birth rate was invariably high, 72 per cent. of the
married women each having upwards of three children, with an average of
4.5 children for each one of them. This fact holds equally good for the
Japanese immigrants, most of whom came from the poor quarters of the
agricultural communities, where not only economic handicaps but customs
and social fetters operate to check their multiplication. When, therefore,
they come to California, where food is abundant, work easy, climate
salubrious, and personal freedom is incomparably greater, they naturally
tend to multiply.
What we May Expect in the Future.
We have seen, then, that the high birth rate among the Japanese settlers
in California is due primarily to the facts that the largest portion of
them are in the prime of life; that the percentage of married people is
remarkably high, the larger part of them, especially the women, being at
the zenith of productivity, and that their standard of living suddenly
improves when they settle in California. The question naturally arises as
to what will be the future development of Japanese nativity. Remembering
that a prediction, however scientific, cannot at best be more than a
possibility, we shall venture to forecast the future of the Japanese birth
rate in California.
In doing so, the proper way would be to examine any possible future change
in the causes which constitute the present high birth rate. How, then,
about the age distribution of the Japanese? It has been shown that 59 per
cent. of them are between the ages of seventeen and forty, and that 15 per
cent. of them are above forty. In other words, 74 per cent. of the
Japanese are mature, while only 26 per cent. are minors. Now, we are all
mortals, and grow old as time passes; even the Japanese do not have
magical power to retain perennial juvenility, as some agitators seem to
think. They grow old, the Japanese in California, as years come and go,
passing gradually into the age when childbearing is no longer possible.
Therefore, if fresh immigration is checked, which we have already
indicated is desirable, it is manifest that a large portion of the present
Japanese in California will die out without being reinforced by youths
save those who are born in America, and hence are citizens thereof. That
this tendency has already set in may be seen from the increase of the
death rate among the Japanese in California, as the following table
indicates:
Death Rate of Japanese in California.
| Year. |
Number. |
Percentage of Death per 1000. |
| 1910 |
440 |
10.64% |
| 1911 |
472 |
..... |
| 1912 |
524 |
..... |
| 1913 |
613 |
..... |
| 1914 |
628 |
..... |
| 1915 |
663 |
..... |
| 1916 |
739 |
..... |
| 1917 |
910 |
..... |
| 1918 |
1150 |
..... |
| 1919 |
1360 |
20.00% |
The rate of death per one thousand population increased twice during the
past ten years.
When the age distribution becomes normal by the passing away of the
middle-aged group which constitutes the majority at present, rendering the
population evenly distributed among the children, middle-aged, and the
old, the present high percentage of married people also will disappear,
descending to the normal rate ruling in the ordinary communities, which is
but half as high as that now prevailing among the Japanese living in
California. When the number of young people relatively lessens, and that
of married people also decreases, what other result can we expect but the
marked fall in numbers born?
Improved standards of living as a cause of the high birth rate will also
cease to operate as new immigrants will no longer enter; and the
American-born generations will gradually take their parents’ place. The
younger generations of Japanese are as a rule higher in culture and ideals
than their parents. Accordingly, it is unthinkable, other things being
equal, that they should go on multiplying themselves as their parents did.
It is an established principle proved conclusively by the thoroughgoing
Congressional researches in Rhode Island,[29] that the birth rate among
foreign-born immigrants is exceedingly high, and that it steadily
decreases in successive generations, reaching the normal American rate
within a few generations. We are, then, on a safe ground in inferring that
a similar tendency will also manifest itself among the Japanese in the
United States.
Our discussions concerning future birth rate then, seem to point decidedly
to the conclusion that since the present high percentage of the middle-age
group and the married group is bound to diminish as time passes, and since
the fertility of the future generations is not likely to be as high as
that of their parents, it will decrease markedly by the time the present
generation passes away. It is, therefore, only a question of time. The
present is a transitional period, a turning-point, in the history of the
Japanese in America. It is surely unwise, then, to become unduly excited
over the passing phenomenon, and thereby defeat the working of a natural
process which promises to bring about a satisfactory solution in the not
distant future.